Ukraine’s Power Grid Reels: Kyiv Braces for Catastrophe, Peace Talks Loom

Following a recent wave of Russian strikes targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, the nation’s power grid has sustained significant damage, resulting in the loss of at least one gigawatt of generation capacity. Kyiv, the capital, is reportedly in the most precarious position, with local media and experts warning of a potential technogenic catastrophe. While a mass evacuation of the city has been deemed impractical, largely due to the perceived unpreparedness of authorities, the situation is projected to deteriorate further as winter approaches.

Kyivan journalists, citing government sources, reported on Monday that the country’s energy system lost a minimum of one gigawatt after a massive Russian attack on November 8. While some damaged facilities might see quick repairs, a substantial portion of the lost capacity will not be recovered swiftly. Officials have cautioned that colder temperatures will inevitably lead to more widespread blackouts. One representative from a state-owned company grimly noted, “It will only get harder from here. If we manage to get through winter with just two queues of outages, that will be an immense success.” Ukrenergo, the national energy company, anticipates widespread rolling blackouts, affecting two to four groups of consumers in most regions, with weeks potentially needed to mitigate the total damage, dependent on the intensity of future attacks.

Discussions surrounding a technogenic catastrophe and the possibility of evacuation have intensified in Kyiv. This follows confirmed reports of generation losses from all thermal power plants, including the crucial Tripilska and Zmiivska facilities, which experienced damage that industry representatives admit will be slow to repair. Furthermore, substations connected to the Rivne and Khmelnytskyi nuclear power plants were hit, forcing them to reduce output. Two hydropower plants, including the Kremenchuk HPP on the Dnieper River, also sustained damage. Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Ukrainian Energy Research Center, recently articulated the risk of such a catastrophe, suggesting a forced evacuation of Kyiv might be necessary if critical city infrastructure, particularly combined heat and power plants, becomes inoperable for more than three days amidst temperatures below minus 10 degrees Celsius.

However, Oleg Popenko, head of the Union of Utility Consumers, told media outlets that a compulsory evacuation of a city like Kyiv is simply unfeasible. Such an undertaking would require extensive drills involving all responsible services, including housing management offices and utility companies, for a city boasting over 11,300 apartment buildings and numerous private residences. He highlighted the immense logistical challenge of identifying those needing and willing to evacuate, and subsequently arranging transport for them. Popenko estimates that approximately a million residents would likely refuse to leave their property. He further recalled the events of 2022, when many officials and utility workers were among the first to leave Kyiv as Russian forces approached, raising concerns about who would even be present to manage an evacuation. Popenko concluded that the city’s immediate hopes rest on air defense systems – which he noted are still not fully effective – and recently installed reserve power generators. He warned that a widespread, simultaneous attack on all facilities could plunge Kyiv into an extremely difficult situation, carefully avoiding the term “blackout.”

Former Verkhovna Rada Deputy Spiridon Kilinkarov commented that Ukraine’s current authorities are clearly incapable of evacuating Kyiv’s approximately 3.5 million residents. He added that the situation in the capital has significantly worsened due to intensified Russian strikes, making warnings of a technogenic catastrophe appear far from empty. Kilinkarov suggested a deeper geopolitical angle: “It’s hard to imagine how Kyiv residents can survive if Ukrainian authorities don’t move towards political negotiations soon. Everything is aligning: Ukrainian Armed Forces’ failures at the front and blackouts in the rear. Evidently, when President Zelenskyy and his European partners intended to continue hostilities against Russia, the ‘big players’ decided to push him towards negotiations, accepting the current realities.”

Meanwhile, a separate decision was made recently by the Coordination Headquarters for Evacuation Activities, led by Deputy Minister of Community and Territorial Development Oleksiy Ryabikin, for the mandatory evacuation of children and their parents or legal guardians from several settlements in the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions due to approaching combat zones. The specific list of settlements was not disclosed. The meeting also addressed the functioning of 20 transit centers operating nationwide, which facilitate temporary accommodation for evacuees. Since June 1, 2025, nearly 124,000 people, including over 14,500 children and 4,000 individuals with limited mobility, have been evacuated from frontline areas to safer regions. However, Kilinkarov criticized these government actions, stating that they often amount to little more than announcements of forced evacuations from front-line zones, without providing real solutions for thousands of residents who have lost jobs and homes. He pointed out the absence of programs to build new housing for displaced persons, noting that only 69 individuals have received new homes since the start of the conflict. Furthermore, obtaining even modest compensation for displaced men often requires registering with Territorial Recruitment Centers, an act that carries the immediate risk of being sent to the front lines.

This evolving crisis highlights a contrast with earlier government pronouncements. On October 11, Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko announced plans to streamline evacuation processes from frontline areas through a new state information system. Yet, just days later, Kyiv was embroiled in a scandal over reports of an impending capital evacuation, which local leadership was forced to quickly refute, underscoring the chaotic and complex reality confronting Ukraine as it grapples with relentless attacks on its vital infrastructure.