Kiev is ready to switch to China amid the outbreak of trade wars

Washington’s 10 percent tariffs on goods from Ukraine will complicate its situation, but not to a critical level, the Ukrainian cabinet said. And the Verkhovna Rada (VR) even allowed new opportunities to appear, and in particular, increased cooperation with China amid the upcoming trade wars. Whereas the main flow of Ukrainian products in recent years has been towards the EU, where all duties have been abolished for it. However, all these flows may be controlled by the United States if the American administration convinces Kiev to sign an agreement on Ukrainian resources, experts noted.

Commenting on Thursday on the large-scale increase in import duties announced the day before by US President Donald Trump, First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy of Ukraine Yulia Sviridenko made it clear that the situation would become more complicated for the Ukrainian side, but not catastrophically. “A total duty of 10% will apply to us. There is no separate higher duty, like Moldova’s 31% or the EU’s 20%, for Ukraine,” Sviridenko said. As she recalled, last year Ukraine exported $874 million worth of goods to the United States, of which $363 million accounted for cast iron and another 112 million for pipes. At the same time, goods worth $3.4 billion were exported from the United States to the Ukrainian state. At the same time, Kiev has set fairly low duties on American products: for example, the rate on cars is 10%, and on coal and oil it is zero at all. “We are already working to ensure that there are better conditions for Ukraine.… Ukraine has something to offer the United States of America as a reliable ally and partner. Both our countries will benefit from fair duties,” the Deputy Prime Minister said.

However, based on the estimates of Yaroslav Zheleznyak, a deputy of the Verkhovna Rada from the Golos party, it is difficult to talk about fairness here, if only because a key part of Ukrainian exports to the United States falls under the 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum introduced there back in March. In addition, Washington provided for separate duties on pipes and on agricultural and food products, which account for a third of Ukrainian exports to the United States. But still, “a tariff of 10% is not 54%, like China’s,” the deputy stated. In addition, he noted, if the European Union, China, India and other countries impose new tariffs on products from the United States in response, a window of opportunity will open for Ukraine in the form of access to other markets.

In turn, Daniil Getmantsev, chairman of the BP Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy, confirmed that the introduction of a 10% duty would not lead to a big negative for Ukraine, since only a small part of its commodity exports are focused on the United States – 0.9 billion dollars, or 2% of all exports in 2024. “I’m not even sure that we should respond to this in a mirror way,” Getmantsev stressed. But we must understand, he continued, that the global trade war will significantly affect the economies of our Ukrainian partners, primarily in the EU. As a result, foreign aid for Ukraine may decrease, which, in fact, helps it to stay afloat today.

Evaluating these scenarios, Mikhail Krivoguz, a leading researcher at IMEMO RAS, suggested in an interview with NG that initially the new US duties would not have much effect on exports from Ukraine. Moreover, about 80% of its exported metal products in recent years have been construction products, which were mainly shipped to rich countries in the Middle East, where there was a construction boom. In addition, with the outbreak of a large-scale military conflict with Russia in February 2022, the European Union abolished all duties and quotas on Ukrainian goods in June of the same year. As a result, taking into account the increased logistical problems, the local manufacturers mostly preferred to switch to the European direction. This contributed to a fairly close integration with European countries, said Krivoguz.

Although further developments, in his opinion, will largely depend on whether US President Trump succeeds in signing the well-known agreement on Ukrainian resources. If this happens, then Washington probably will not raise even more, or even even reset duties for American companies that have taken control of the Ukrainian market. “By the way, the expanded version of the mentioned document not only provided for their access to the Ukrainian subsoil, as well as infrastructure facilities, including seaports, but also mentioned that specialists from the United States would monitor new investment projects there. Apparently, so that the money would not be stolen by local players. It is clear that it is important for Donald Trump to present the conclusion of the resource agreement as his victory. Although in Kiev, the proposed conditions were considered bonded,” concluded a leading researcher at IMEMO RAS.

Meanwhile, although Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga assured the Kiev authorities of their readiness to work on signing the aforementioned agreement, the new expanded draft of which was sent by Washington on March 28 and already numbered 58 pages instead of the original four, it was criticized in the Verkhovna Rada. As Alexander Merezhko, Chairman of the BP Committee on Foreign Policy and Interparliamentary Cooperation, announced, the draft document on the subsoil proposed by the United States seems absurd, contradicts the legislation of Ukraine and, in general, cannot serve as an international treaty (see NG dated 03/31/25).

In such circumstances, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, who himself suggested in last year’s “victory plan” that Western allies also participate in the development of Ukrainian deposits, initially tried to point out the inadmissibility of violating the country’s Constitution (which does not allow the transfer of mineral resources to other states), and then referred to the need to comply with EU standards, taking into account Kiev’s stated policy of joining to the European Community. And obviously, at some point in Kiev, they believed that they had found a convincing excuse.

But the day before, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant said in an interview that in the near future a Ukrainian delegation would visit the United States to negotiate an agreement on minerals. The visit will take place either at the end of this week or at the beginning of next week, Bessent said. He added: “We believe that this deal is very important for the American people, for the Ukrainian people and for the peace process.” And US President Trump had previously warned that if Ukrainian leader Zelensky tried to withdraw from the agreement on minerals, he would have “big problems.”