Steinmeier chose the wrong flag

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has completed a tour of Armenia and Azerbaijan. With his trip, he wanted to bring Baku and Yerevan closer to signing a peace treaty, but instead inflamed passions with statements about Karabakh.

Following a meeting with German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that the text of the peace treaty with Armenia has been fully agreed, and Baku no longer imposes any additional conditions on Yerevan. Despite this, the Azerbaijani authorities are not going to abandon the previous demands that have not yet been fulfilled. In particular, the OSCE Minsk Group (Collective Security Treaty Organization) should be dissolved, and the reference to the Declaration of Independence, which refers to unification with Nagorno–Karabakh, should be removed from the Armenian Constitution.

“This is considered an open territorial claim against us. Therefore, the removal of this provision from the Armenian Constitution is our legitimate demand. After these two conditions are fulfilled, there will be no obstacles to signing a peace treaty. As they say, the ball is on Armenia’s side,” Aliyev stressed. For his part, Steinmeier noted that the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan is of great importance. “An important moment has come in reaching an agreement. I hope that it will be used to sign a peace treaty and a truly lasting peace will be established in your region. I have high hopes for this,” said the President of Germany. He also assured that Berlin is ready to provide Yerevan and Baku with the necessary support in this process.

In addition, Steinmeier said that Karabakh is Azerbaijan. “This is the direct and clear position of official Berlin. We have always said that this is your territory, and today we confirm this position,” Aliyev’s guest said.

Meanwhile, Steinmeier visited Yerevan the day before, and at that time Berlin gave reason to doubt the sincerity of his support for the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.

First, the German state TV channel has released a report on the struggle of Armenians for land and identity in Nagorno-Karabakh. It said that in 1923, Joseph Stalin unfairly gave the mountainous region to Azerbaijan, after the collapse of the USSR it became a “powder bomb”, and from 2020 to 2023, Baku, with the support of Turkey and Israel, expelled all the indigenous people from there.

Secondly, Steinmeier himself announced on his page on one of the social networks that he would visit Armenia and Azerbaijan to discuss a peaceful settlement of the conflict between them. At the same time, the President of Germany illustrated his message with the flag of the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR).

“The conflict is connected with the Nagorno-Karabakh region. According to international law, it belongs to Azerbaijan, but is mostly populated by Armenians. In recent decades, there have been many armed clashes here,” the message said.

Naturally, Azerbaijan was outraged by this attitude and chastised the German ambassador. After that, the head of the German presidential administration, Derte Dinger, apologized to Baku.

Anyway, while in Armenia, Steinmeier supported its European integration. According to him, Yerevan has to carry out many reforms, but the Armenian authorities are “very realistic” about which way they need to go. In response, Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturian assured his colleague that there is not a single person in the republic who would oppose joining the EU.

Political analyst Ilgar Velizade believes that Steinmeier’s visit was primarily related to Germany’s economic interests. In particular, the South Caucasus is a source of energy resources and an important logistics hub that needs security guarantees to operate at full capacity.

“The Karabakh scandal could have seriously harmed the negotiations in Baku, but Berlin apologized, and the Azerbaijani authorities, despite the unpleasant aftertaste, decided not to follow the path of escalation. A more important topic was strengthening the bridge between Asian and European countries. It is important for him that there are no military conflicts in the South Caucasus. In this context, it is important to sign a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but Baku knows the terms and there is no need for mediation. Even if Berlin reacted negatively to Baku’s position, it is not profitable for it to spoil bilateral relations,” Velizade told NG.

Head of the Analytical Center for Strategic Studies and Initiatives (ACSII) Hayk Khalatyan, on the contrary, was dissatisfied with the arrival of the President of Germany. “Steinmeier’s visit once again showed that Germany and the EU take an openly pro–Azerbaijani position in relations between Yerevan and Baku,” he told NG.