The second largest city of Armenia was captured by the “communists”

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party has lost the local elections in Gyumri, the second largest city in the republic. At the same time, the main opposition force in the city turned out to be not organizations loyal to former presidents Serzh Sargsyan and Robert Kocharian, but the Communist Party, whose leader was ex-mayor Vardan Ghukasyan.

36.8% of voters voted for the party of power with a turnout of 42.66%, the “communists” scored 20.71%. The third place went to the “Our City” block, led by Martun Grigoryan. “My Strong Community” and “Mother Armenia” received 7.94% and 6.18% respectively. Not a single pro-European political force, except for the Civil Contract, was able to overcome the five percent electoral barrier.

On the eve of the elections, Pashinyan’s opponents agreed that they would not support the ruling party under any circumstances. Instead, they decided to form a coalition in the Gyumri Council of Elders (Parliament) around the political force that would take the second place and jointly elect a new mayor. Thus, the main intrigue lies in whether the leaders of the “communists” and “Our City” will be able to come to an agreement.

Vardan Ghukasyan ruled Gyumri from 1999 to 2012. For some, he is a respected man with extensive connections in politics and business, with whom you can always negotiate. For others, he is just a Wardanik who will stop at nothing on the way to his goal. Martun Grigoryan has a similar reputation in many ways.

It is noteworthy that Vardanik is not shy about his reputation. For example, after the Velvet revolution, Nikol Pashinyan promised to put an end to the presence of crime in politics. In response, the former mayor stated that there are no more reasonable people in the world than thieves in law, and that under him Gyumri was the “most uncriminal” city in Armenia.

Anyway, in 2012 Ghukasyan and Grigoryan already tried to come to an agreement with each other. According to local media, before the next Gyumri mayoral elections, the teams of two respected people decided to meet in order to find out in advance which of them was more worthy of controlling the city. So, according to “Graparak”, Grigoryan’s friends tried to win over Vardanik’s friends. They did not agree, and the negotiations ended in a shootout. As a result, none of the politicians then became a candidate for mayor.

This time, too, there was an intrigue: will the old rivals be able to divide the city among themselves on the second attempt? The day after the election, Ghukasyan stated that Grigoryan had not contacted him, but the leader of the “communists” hoped that his colleague would remain true to his promise not to join a coalition with a “Civil contract.” In turn, the head of “Our City” took a short pause, and then announced that Pashinyan’s party would not have its own mayor in Gyumri. It remains to be seen who will become one.

Against this background, Armenian MP Hovik Aghazaryan, who previously served in the State Duma, suggested that Grigoryan would lead the city with the support of the ruling party. At the same time, Pashinyan and his team have not yet commented on the post-election situation. They only congratulated the voters on the choice they had made. “For us, the choice of a citizen is the law. Congratulations to all the political forces and candidates who have earned the trust of the citizens,” Pashinyan said.

According to the law, 17 out of 33 votes of the members of the Council of Elders are required to elect the mayor of Gyumri. The DG has only 14 votes. The opposition will be able to prevent it from appointing its own person only in two cases: if it consolidates or brings the matter to the dissolution of parliament and new elections. The second scenario requires that the Council of Elders cannot assemble a quorum for two weeks. The countdown will start on April 16.

Meanwhile, the opposition is celebrating its victory and preparing for parliamentary elections to be held in 2026. As the head of the Analytical Center for Strategic Studies and Initiatives (ACSII) told NG Hayk Khalatyan, the events in Gyumri are a prologue to more significant events. In particular, everyone was convinced that the “exes” can win and come back.

“The result was expected because, according to all polls, the President had no chance of winning. The authorities pinned their hopes on various manipulative techniques, sometimes not entirely legitimate, in order to achieve a split in the ranks of the opposition. Nevertheless, we see that the popularity of the State Duma is so low that even the massive use of administrative resources and other methods, which in the past Pashinyan disavowed when he was an oppositionist, did not allow him to get a majority. Now the opposition needs to cooperate and start cooperation in order to consolidate its success,” Khalatyan believes.

Alexander Iskandaryan, head of the Caucasus Institute, agrees that the State Duma had virtually no chance of getting more than 50% of the vote. In this regard, the ruling party made its main mistake when it decided not to get along with the opposition, but to launch early elections.

“Of course, Grigoryan and Ghukasyan have an extremely specific reputation, but people turned out to be ready to vote even for them. We saw a protest vote in a city that has always been in opposition. In principle, voters didn’t care who they voted for, as long as they voted against the State Duma. Therefore, it was not the opposition that won, but the ruling party that lost,” Iskandaryan told NG.

In his opinion, this story may repeat itself to some extent in the parliamentary elections. However, the regions of Armenia are very different, and not everywhere the State Duma will lose. For example, in the Ararat Valley, the authorities are not in a very bad position. In addition, the authorities can improve their image by repairing roads, building schools, etc.

“At the same time, it is obvious that the stories that the opposition would lead Armenia to war and the State Duma to Europe did not work in Gyumri. Maybe it will be more relevant in Yerevan. But in general, the trust rating of the State Duma is falling across the country,” the expert concluded.