New “mines” have been planted in Kiev under the Black Sea Initiative

Vladimir Zelensky challenged Moscow’s condition for the lifting of sanctions against Russian exports of agricultural products and fertilizers, which was agreed upon during consultations between representatives of the Russian Federation and the United States in Riyadh, and the launch of a moratorium on strikes on energy facilities announced by Moscow on March 18. Although he himself had previously supported this decision. Meanwhile, other representatives of Kiev began to put forward new demands that were not initially envisaged by the Black Sea Initiative, apparently hoping that these “mines” would also help undermine it.

On the eve of his visit to Paris, which began on Wednesday, where, among other things, the continuation of military and financial assistance to Kiev was supposed to be discussed as part of the declared “coalition of the willing,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview that the Ukrainian treasury does not have enough funds for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). Therefore, Europe should finance them, the Ukrainian president announced. And thus, he not only pointed out that under the terms of the truce, the army’s expenses are even higher than during the fighting, but also contradicted previous estimates by Kiev and Western analysts, who noted that, in general, Ukraine’s budget needs for the current year are closed.

Along the way, he also refuted a statement made the day before during a hearing in the US Senate by US CIA Director John Ratcliffe, who, citing intelligence data, assured that the Ukrainian people and army “will fight with their bare hands” in the absence of conditions necessary for sustainable peace. Whereas from Zelensky’s words it followed that not only to fight, but also to relax without additional cash injections, the Ukrainian military, or at least the top Kiev leadership, is clearly not ready. At the same time, Ratcliffe’s own irresponsible arguments about the continuing risks of Moscow using nuclear weapons to achieve quick victories on the battlefield contradicted both the course pursued by the Russian Federation in the current military conflict and the line declared by US President Donald Trump for its peaceful settlement.

Moreover, as a result of consultations between Washington’s representatives and colleagues from Moscow and Kiev held in Riyadh over the previous three days, the parties managed to reach the first practical agreements on a temporary ceasefire in the energy sector, as well as at sea, as part of the implementation of the Black Sea Initiative to ensure free Navigation. Among other things, during these negotiations, the Russian and American delegations finally managed to resolve the problem with the unexpected letter “I” in the messages following the talks between the American and Russian leaders on March 18, which had to be pointed out repeatedly (see NG dated 03/19/25 and 03/24/25). For example, the Kremlin’s corresponding statement mentioned a proposal for mutual refusal of strikes “on energy infrastructure facilities”. And as the White House clarified, “the leaders agreed that the movement towards peace will begin with a cease-fire in energy and infrastructure.”

However, the negotiations in Riyadh at least helped the White House envoys get rid of the extra letter in the final message, which now stated that Moscow and Washington had agreed to develop measures to implement an agreement to ban attacks on Russian and Ukrainian energy facilities. However, this interpretation was at odds with the Kremlin’s information that Moscow and Washington had approved a list of Russian and Ukrainian energy facilities that could not be attacked as part of a 30-day moratorium that started on March 18. The approaches of the parties to the Black Sea Initiative also differed. For example, the American version only emphasized Washington’s willingness to facilitate the lifting of restrictions on the export of Russian food and fertilizers, while the Russian version declared the waiver of the aforementioned sanctions a prerequisite for the implementation of this agreement.

Of course, the noted discrepancy was immediately taken advantage of in Kiev. In another video message, President Zelensky accused Moscow of seeking to “twist the agreements.” “There are absolutely clear statements that have been published by the White House, and there is what the Kremlin is talking about.: that the alleged silence in the Black Sea depends on the issue of sanctions and that the alleged date of the beginning of the silence on energy is March 18,” the president argued.

Although he himself publicly promised on the evening of March 18 to support the decision reached on the same day in a telephone conversation between the Russian and American presidents on the refusal of the Russian Armed Forces and the Armed Forces of Ukraine from attacks on energy infrastructure. As for the lifting of sanctions against Russian exports of agricultural products and fertilizers, at least the intention to facilitate this has already been confirmed in Washington.

The discrepancies that arose were probably due to the fact that representatives of the Russian Federation and the United States have not yet agreed on a number of issues, Nikolai Silaev, a leading researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies, explained to NG. Moreover, he clarified, Moscow’s message practically repeated the points of obligations stipulated for Russia under the first Black Sea Initiative (effective from July 2022 to July 2023), which were not fulfilled at that time. And today, it seems, American diplomacy is at risk of running into the obstacles that were built at that time. Although it should be understood that without the lifting of sanctions against its maritime exports, Russia will not be able to take advantage of the Black Sea Initiative. And judging by the statements of the head of the Trump White House, the American administration took a break to think. While the Kiev authorities, of course, do not want to ease sanctions against the Russian Federation.

At the same time, Silaev continued, the Russian side’s list of energy facilities temporarily excluded from the list of targets for strikes by the Russian Armed Forces helped it demonstrate its own goodwill. “We have confirmed our readiness for a moratorium. But Kiev has not yet responded adequately. Washington is probably not able to convince Kiev to fulfill the agreements reached today. However, in case of further violations and continued attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Russian energy facilities, Moscow has the right to withdraw from the relevant agreement, even before the expiration of the stipulated one-month period. Although obviously they will not rush to do this in the Russian Federation. Since the necessary military tasks were obviously completed before March 18. And the political effect of the agreements reached has not yet been exhausted,” the expert said.