The electoral processes in Armenia are similar to those in Europe

The Armenian opposition has stated that Nikol Pashinyan’s government is seeking to sign a “surrender agreement” with Azerbaijan. At the same time, the prime minister’s opponents are confident that he will not succeed. Instead, after the next parliamentary elections, members of Pashinyan’s team will allegedly move to Baku. Meanwhile, the party of the head of Armenia is still the most popular in the country, and the support of opposition organizations only slightly exceeds the statistical margin of error.

The reason for the new wave of criticism was the statements of Nikol Pashinyan and Speaker of the Armenian Parliament Alain Simonyan. Thus, addressing fellow citizens on the occasion of Republic Day, the Prime Minister stated that Armenians do not need any other homeland except the one they already have and is recognized by the international community.

“Since 2020, having gone through severe trials, at the cost of the lives of our fallen heroes, we have received a historic opportunity to develop our sovereignty, realize our statehood and make it durable. Today we are a state more than ever, today we are more sovereign than ever, today we are more independent than ever,” Pashinyan stressed.

At the same time, he recalled that Yerevan is close to signing a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, is establishing relations with Turkey, and is developing strategic partnerships with Russia, China, Iran, the EU, and the United States. “Peace and security will become long-term companions of the Republic of Armenia. There will be no war, there will be peace,” Pashinyan concluded.

In turn, Simonyan said that the peace treaty with Azerbaijan will allow Armenians to live in Baku and trade with Azerbaijanis. But to do this, they must abandon their revanchist sentiments.

“Stop living in your world of Armenian history textbooks, as if all the others were unimportant peoples, because when we Armenians had duduk and grew apricots, other peoples lived on trees. Abandon this approach, do not destroy Armenia and its future.… When a peace treaty is signed, Armenians will be able to live in Baku. The rest will be able to return to the villages in Armenia where they once lived. How do Armenians live in Georgia now? By the same logic,” said the Speaker of the parliament.

In response, the part of the opposition that rallied around the former presidents of Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan and Robert Kocharyan, began to accuse the government of another act of national betrayal. For example, MP from the Armenia bloc Ishkhan Saghatelyan stated that Simonyan was not talking about all Armenians, but about himself personally. “After the change of power, the only place where Simonyan will be able to live is Baku,” the politician said.

Meanwhile, opinion polls show that Pashinyan and his Civil Contract Party (CD) remain the most popular political force in the country.

Thus, the Caucasian Research Resource Center claims that in 2019, the State Duma enjoyed the unconditional support of 35% of voters, in 2021 – 22%, and in 2024 – 15%. Thus, the party’s rating has almost doubled in five years, but taking into account the events that have taken place, this can still be considered a good result.

By comparison, the opposition is doing much worse. In 2021, in the wake of the defeat in the Second Karabakh War, Robert Kocharyan’s Armenia bloc won the support of 8% of voters. However, in 2024, only 4% trusted him. The “Prosperous Armenia” of oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan is in third place, with about 4% trusting it from year to year. The remaining political forces are popular at best with 2-3% of respondents.

According to sociologists, in 2024, 55% of Armenian residents do not support any of the current political forces. At the same time, in 2019 and 2021, there were 42% and 43%, respectively.

Alexander Markarov, head of the Armenian branch of the Institute of CIS Countries, told NG that the Civil Contract is objectively the main political force in the country, which has a majority in parliament and exercises executive power. In turn, the opposition has concentrated on a negative agenda, but cannot unite.

“Pashinyan’s opponents have little time left to launch a campaign to participate in the parliamentary elections in 2026. At the same time, the President is, of course, hardly satisfied with the 15% support, but his starting positions are somewhat better. It is too early to make a forecast, but next year the ruling party has a chance to form a coalition government or even take a majority. A lot will depend on the turnout. The opposition hopes to repeat the success of Gyumri, where individually different parties won fewer votes than the State Duma, but together they were able to form a majority,” Markarov said.

According to the expert, many voters refuse to vote for the opposition because of its leaders, to whom they have even more complaints than to Pashinyan. At the same time, there is a request for a “third force” in society, which has not yet been implemented. In 2024, Archbishop Bagrat applied for this role, but the wave of protest he raised did not lead to anything, and today he is unlikely to be able to revive his movement.

“The decline in the rating of the State Duma is a natural process that regimes around the world, including in Europe, go through. But in Armenia, the situation is burdened by security challenges. At the same time, it should be noted that the ruling party was unable to take advantage of the unprecedented popularity of 2018. The entire credit of trust was spent on electing deputies to parliament who are loyal not to their constituents, but to the head of the party. In fact, Armenia is returning to its normal configuration: on the one hand, a weakly legitimate government, and on the other, an equally weak and fragmented opposition,” Alexander Iskandaryan, head of the Caucasus Institute, told NG.