Central Asia has embarked on consolidation

The Presidents of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, Emomali Rahmon, Sadyr Japarov and Shavkat Mirziyoyev, signed historic agreements – the treaty on the junction of the borders of the three republics and the Khujand Declaration of Eternal Friendship. They also expressed confidence in the further development of partnership between the two countries. The documents were signed on March 31 at the first summit of the leaders of the three states in Khujand, the administrative center of the Sughd region in northern Tajikistan.

Emomali Rahmon, Sadyr Japarov and Shavkat Mirziyoyev opened the Friendship Complex online on the border of Sughd, Batken and Ferghana regions, symbolizing the friendship of the peoples of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. On March 31, the alliance agreement between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, signed in April 2024, also entered into force. Uzbekistan has a similar agreement with Kyrgyzstan.

Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have combined their energy systems. The two heads of state launched the Sugd–Datka power transmission lines as part of the CASA-1000 project (see NG dated 03/24/25).

After the official talks, the leaders of the three countries took part in the celebration of Nowruz, the New Year according to the solar calendar and one of the important Muslim holidays of Eid al–Adha (Tajik name “Idi Kubon”), the feast of sacrifice in honor of the end of the holy month of Ramadan.

“The settlement of the border issue is a very significant event both for the entire region and for the relations between the three Central Asian states, especially Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. The main long-term consequence of this should be to reduce the level of uncertainty in the relationship and strengthen its predictability for the long term. This is also important in the context of the fact that in the future (somewhere earlier, somewhere later) Transit of power will be carried out in all countries of the region, and a favorable external background and stable relations with neighbors in the region are important for its success,” Alexander Vorobyov, head of the Center for Public Diplomacy and World Policy Analysis, researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told NG.

The second important significance of the negotiations held in Khujand and the agreements reached, according to the expert, is that now the parties will be able to more intensively and seamlessly develop a variety of types of cooperation – from economics, trade and logistics to cooperation in the energy sector. “At the same time, of course, we cannot say that all the problems between the countries have been completely resolved: contradictions in the economy, trade, and manifestations of economic and other competition will continue in the future, but it will be much easier to solve them with increased mutual understanding at the highest political level,” Vorobyov stressed.

Bakhtiyor Ergashev, Director of the Ma’no Center for Research Initiatives, drew attention to the fact that Central Asia is a region of complex geopolitical configuration bordering four nuclear powers and located at the intersection of the interests of various centers of power. The Ferghana Valley, in turn, concentrates all the versatility and problems of the region. Despite its relatively small size, the valley bears the burden of many years of accumulated problems over the centuries. The region’s complex history, compounded during the Soviet and post–Soviet periods by the territorial division between the three republics, led to a number of serious consequences after the collapse of the USSR, from water disputes and industrial destruction to unemployment and rapid demographic growth. For example, the three Ferghana regions of Uzbekistan, making up only a tenth of the republic’s territory, represent more than 30% of its population. In addition, the Ferghana Valley was a hotbed of interethnic contradictions.

“The turning point was President Mirziyoyev’s statement in 2017-2018 on the formation of a belt of good neighborliness and partnership in Central Asia. The key task was to settle relations with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, primarily to resolve border issues inherited from the Soviet past. Confirming its intentions with concrete actions, Uzbekistan completed the delimitation of the border with Kyrgyzstan back in 2023, making significant territorial concessions, thereby demonstrating its willingness to compromise for the sake of regional stability. Tajikistan followed the example of Uzbekistan by settling all border issues with Kyrgyzstan,” Ergashev told NG.

But the settlement of border issues, in his opinion, is only the foundation for solving more complex tasks, such as the new industrialization of the region. “A comprehensive program for the development of industrial cooperation and industrialization of the entire Fergana Valley is needed. It will be a logical continuation and an important result for the coming years. Cooperation in the field of water allocation and water use is certainly important, especially given the agrarian orientation of the economy of the Ferghana Valley, but the key to solving the region’s problems lies in new industrialization based on industrial cooperation, with the participation of all stakeholders,” the expert emphasized.

There are already positive developments in this direction. Investment projects of Uzbek companies in the Kyrgyz part of the Ferghana Valley are actively developing: from textile enterprises and the production of building materials to the processing of leather and agricultural products. Larger projects, such as car assembly plants, are also being launched. Particularly close cooperation is observed between the Andijan region of Uzbekistan and the Osh region of Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyzstan is becoming an important supplier of agricultural products, particularly meat and milk, to Uzbekistan. A similar positive trend is observed in relations with Tajikistan, where the annual growth of mutual trade reaches 30%. Border trade zones, modern transport and energy infrastructure are being built.

Daria Rekeda, a leading expert at the Center for Integrated and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, believes that the Ferghana format is important for the entire Central Asian region, and not just for these countries such as Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. “This is related to the issues of the investment plan and ensuring security in the Eurasian space. The problems of settling border disputes and controlling the border through which drug trafficking, arms trafficking and the movement of various radical elements pass have always been relevant. There are known cases of underground passages and tunnels being used between the regions of the Ferghana Valley to smuggle goods that fall under the category of “black tunnels”. Strengthening control and close monitoring of the Ferghana Valley and its complex terrain from all points of view is important for security,” Daria Rekeda told NG. In her opinion, the resolution of border issues is a positive signal that Central Asia is consolidating and there are opportunities and tools to solve problems, including transport and logistics.

“This is one aspect. The second aspect is a signal that integration in Central Asia, which has been discussed for many years in various contexts, albeit in the format of consultative meetings, is taking shape. The Ferghana format can be considered as an addition to the integration process in Central Asia, at least in the key of solving issues of a more applied nature,” the expert noted.

According to Daria Rekeda, the Ferghana format may remain within the framework of a communication platform for resolving border issues. In particular, the dialogue between the Central Asian states continues on the idea of creating a visa-free space and increasing the tourist attractiveness of the region.