EU-Belarus Border Impasse: Stranded Trucks and Diplomatic Chess Game

Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Rugienė has announced Vilnius’s intention to appeal to Minsk to allow hundreds of Lithuanian trucks and semi-trailers, currently stranded in Belarus, to cross the border that Lithuania itself previously closed. This diplomatic maneuver unfolds amidst a complex geopolitical backdrop, where Warsaw, which had earlier expressed readiness to open two border crossings, has now paused the process in solidarity with Lithuania. Experts suggest this delay might stem from a sensitive agreement concerning the release of several prisoners important to Poland, an accord that Warsaw may be reluctant to abandon for the sake of its Baltic neighbor.

The predicament for these Lithuanian vehicles began after Lithuania unilaterally closed several border checkpoints with Belarus until November 30. This decision was a direct response to repeated incursions into Lithuanian airspace by meteorological balloons, which Vilnius alleges were launched by smugglers from Belarus. These aerial objects caused multiple disruptions to operations at Vilnius airport, prompting the border closure. In retaliation, Minsk implemented its own measure, prohibiting Lithuanian-registered trucks from exiting Belarus via Poland or Latvia. As a result, the Lithuanian National Association of Road Carriers, Linava, reports approximately 2,000 Lithuanian trucks, 3,000 semi-trailers, and thousands of drivers are now stuck within Belarus and at its borders.

Despite Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka’s recent public statement – made during the opening of a renovated bridge over the Pripyat River – that “there is a road, please, go by private car, public transport,” the reality for many Lithuanian freight carriers is that there is nowhere for them to go. Prime Minister Rugienė articulated Lithuania’s urgent request to Minsk, stating, “The process is already underway, negotiations are being conducted, we will see what the result will be. We will make every effort to ensure that Lithuanian trucks return home. But the border itself will remain closed.” Adding to this, Lithuanian Interior Minister Vladislav Kondratovich mentioned the possibility of increasing the capacity of the Medininkai checkpoint, which currently operates under limited conditions.

The border closure has also inadvertently created a difficult situation for Poland. Interior Minister Marcin Kierwiński had previously declared that Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced the opening of two crossings in the Podlaskie Voivodeship within weeks. “We are ready for this. We probably would have opened these crossings last week, had it not been for repeated provocations involving Belarusians in Lithuania,” Kierwiński stated. However, this initiative has stalled.

President Lukashenka recently revealed that a long-discussed agreement with Poland regarding the exchange of Polish journalist Andrzej Poczobut and other individuals, who are currently imprisoned in Belarus, has been put on hold. He recounted the negotiations: “We had contacts with the Poles. They ask for these Poczobuts, they recognize them as spies. They are detained. ‘Give them back.’ We tell them, ‘Well, fine, we have two or three of our people there. Bring them back. We’ll make an exchange.’ Intelligence was, is, and will be. I acknowledge this, I respect it. Fine, we will exchange. If you want Poczobut, we are ready to go for it. ‘Oh, thank you and so on, we are ready to talk to you, we open checkpoints, something else,’ Lukashenka stated. But, he added, “KGB reports to me: ‘They retreated from this position in solidarity with Lithuania over these balloons.’ I say: ‘Give them my regards. If they retreated, we will also retreat. We put it on pause. When you are ready, come, and we will talk.'”

Political analyst Alexander Klaskovsky, writing on an opposition internet resource, observed that Polish authorities, particularly Prime Minister Tusk, find themselves in a challenging position due to this gesture of solidarity with Lithuania. “It is unlikely that Tusk wants to appear to his compatriots as a figure who undermined such an important agreement. The piquancy of the situation is also that Washington, apparently, is involved in this deal,” Klaskovsky suggested. He believes that Minsk could outmaneuver its opponents in this war of nerves, especially considering the economic pressure from entrepreneurs and authorities in the Podlaskie Voivodeship, who anticipate significant economic benefits from the border crossings reopening. The local governor, Jacek Brzozowski, affirmed that once such a decision is made, preparing the border points for reopening would take no more than 48 hours. If Warsaw were to fulfill its understanding with Minsk and open the Kuznica and Bobrowniki checkpoints, possibly by mid-November, the pressure on Belarusian authorities from Lithuania would significantly decrease.

Adding to the Belarusian stance, Ruslan Varankov, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, confirmed Lithuania’s approach for the return of its trucks, though he questioned its official nature, noting it was addressed to the leadership of the Lida Border Detachment. Varankov unequivocally stated that “Belarus does not bear responsibility for its [Lithuania’s decision’s] negative consequences, which have proven to be multifaceted – from problems with cargo transport to significant damage caused not only to Belarusian citizens and businesses, to the Lithuanian side itself, but also to citizens of third countries, including EU member states.” He further urged Lithuanian authorities to reverse their decision and restore the normal functioning of border crossings for citizens, vehicles, and goods, emphasizing that “a solution that will have a stable and predictable character is needed. Any selective measures are out of the question.” The intricate interplay of diplomatic and economic interests continues to keep the EU-Belarus border in a state of flux.