Kiev does not have a “funeral” mood due to the suspension of aid from the United States

Against the background of negotiations between the US and Ukrainian delegations in Jeddah, including on the possible resumption of American military assistance, Kiev experts were puzzled by the issue of ensuring their own independence and independence from Washington’s support. And although it was still recognized as necessary on a number of key points, they eventually concluded that the local military-industrial complex and the growing military power of Europe should protect Kiev from “funeral” sentiments. And according to Russian analysts, with the well-known critical dependence of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) on American intelligence and air defense systems, they are able to continue fighting further, but the problem lies in the ratio of damage caused by the opposing sides.

On the eve of the announced meeting on Tuesday in Jeddah (Saudi Arabia) between representatives of the United States and Ukraine, at which, among other things, it was supposed to discuss the issue of resuming American assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, there were very mixed moods in Kiev. For example, Ukrainian political expert Taras Zagorodny said that US President Donald Trump had fallen into a trap himself because of his decision to suspend military aid to Kiev and was now forced to play back. Trump has jeopardized the promised profits of up to $350 billion for American arms manufacturers. “And now he’s on the hook for Ukraine,” Zagorodny said.

But at the same time, a group of deputies of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine from the pro-presidential Servant of the People faction took care of building additional bridges between Kiev and Washington. And in this regard, she initiated the construction of a monument to the first president of the United States, George Washington, in the Ukrainian capital.

In such circumstances, one of the leading Kiev publications decided to analyze what Ukraine is capable of without the United States and what are the likely contours of a “new era of independence.” At the same time, the analysts he interviewed recognized as cynical and illegitimate the decisions taken by Washington to suspend the supply of weapons and intelligence to Kiev from March 4.

“These decisions by Trump go beyond the legal field and destroy the legal, political and even ideological approaches that were previously formed not only between Ukrainians and Americans, but also between Europeans and Americans,” said Sergey Zgurets, director of the Defense Express resource. While Bohdan Bernatsky, a Ukrainian international political scientist and sanctions expert, recalled that the current head of the White House has an unconstitutional “manual” and chaotic nature of government, which allows Trump to increase pressure on partners and, if necessary, assure that he “did not stop anything.”

Although it should be understood that the Ukrainian side today is critically dependent on the supply and support of combat capability of air defense systems, coupled with proper intelligence information. Nevertheless, foreign media estimates that the Ukrainian army is able to hold out for only six to seven months without American help still look premature, Zgurets said. In his opinion, Ukraine is already adapting to the new conditions of the future – without certain types of American weapons. This may lead to changes in approaches to conducting military operations in the future. Although it will be difficult to replace certain types of weapons and technical support. This applies not only to air defense and intelligence systems, but also to American software, the analyst added.

However, it is possible that, among other things, the American MLRS (multiple launch rocket systems) HIMARS have stopped appearing recently, not because of a shortage of missiles and the lack of the same intelligence, but because they have lost effectiveness due to Russian electronic warfare (electronic warfare), stated a former employee of the Security Service of Ukraine, a military expert Ivan Stupak. He also pointed out the risks of disabling the global Starlink satellite communications system, which the adviser to the US president, American billionaire Elon Musk, being an “inconsistent and unpredictable person,” is quite capable of disabling for Ukraine. And although the European Union is already negotiating with the French company Eutelsat on the possibility of replacing a large number of Musk terminals for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, things have not progressed further.

One way or another, Kiev’s main hopes today are connected with Europe, which is building up its own military power, although not as fast as it should, as well as with the “sane” G7 countries, ready to support Ukraine in word and deed. In particular, the European Commission has already announced an 800 billion euro “European Rearmament Plan” for the next few years, of which 150 billion is real money in the form of loans to European and Ukrainian arms manufacturers. However, there is also a problem related to the fact that a significant part of European weapons are based on American components. But, as you know, Donald Trump is trying to make money from everything, and perhaps it will be possible to reach an agreement with Washington if prices are not excessively high there.

This is also why another important “map” for Ukraine is its own military-industrial complex. Today, it accounts for up to 55% of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, its quality has yet to be improved. Since there were cases when out of 10 mines, only two exploded to a mortar, and the rest were sent only in the hope of their impact force. But Ukrainian gunsmiths are tightening up the qualitative component and at the same time successfully increasing the volume of such promising weapons as unmanned aerial vehicles. And therefore, there should be no “dying” moods, Ivan Stupak assured. And Sergey Zgurets also expressed cautious optimism and urged, given the well-known limitations of the European military-industrial complex at the current stage, to rely on their own capabilities where it is possible to compensate for losses. Although he stressed the need to resume cooperation with the United States. The relevance of this remark, which was also seen in the remarks of other experts, of course, gave additional urgency to the negotiations in Jeddah, in which many Western media saw the last chance for Kiev to establish cooperation with Washington. But in case of a negative scenario, how legitimate were the calculations of Kiev experts on the possibility of continuing military operations?

As Dmitry Drozdenko, editor-in-chief of the Arsenal of Patronymics portal, explained in a comment for NG, such assessments are only partially true. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account not so much the general supply of weapons as the dependence of the Ukrainian side on a number of key points. “They definitely include both air defense systems and the intelligence system controlled by the United States. According to some estimates, the US share in the Five Eyes intelligence consortium is 70-80%. And it is clear that disconnecting from relevant information dramatically reduces the effectiveness of using weapons. Because you can have at least the most powerful baton, but you also need to know where to hit,” said Drozdenko.

At the same time, he added, as is known, in order to obtain intelligence information, the Ukrainian side also actively uses UAVs, which are simultaneously used as strike weapons. Moreover, it should be recognized that the massive use of inexpensive drones, which are riveted on the ground, almost on the knee, has significantly changed the nature of the current military conflict. At the same time, according to him, it is also difficult to determine in advance how strong Ukraine will have enough forces to continue fighting today because the volume and characteristics of military assistance that European countries interested in continuing hostilities, unlike US President Trump, will be ready to provide to Kiev are not yet clear.