It is becoming increasingly difficult for Belarusian goods to compete with Chinese ones
A recent macro review by the Eurasian Bank for Reconstruction (EDB) shows an increase in the foreign trade deficit of Belarus. The trend that emerged last year continues this year. The EDB points to a marked decline in exports. And this applies not only to the countries that have imposed sanctions against Minsk, but also to the CIS. Experts say that it is becoming increasingly difficult for some significant types of Belarusian products to compete with Chinese goods on the Russian market.
On Tuesday, accepting credentials from a group of ambassadors from Asia and Africa, as well as Georgia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, President Alexander Lukashenko told them: “You will have the opportunity to see firsthand that Belarus is completely different from what it is often portrayed using only black paints and a stream of negativity.
Contrary to Western stereotypes, we are successfully developing. Despite the pressure exerted from outside, we are comprehensively increasing our potential, offering our friends and partners all the best that we have gained over the decades in science, education, healthcare, industry, agriculture and other sectors.”
Despite the growth demonstrated by the Belarusian economy, it faces serious problems in terms of export cooperation with foreign countries.
The Eurasian Bank for Reconstruction has published a fresh macro-review, in which it gives such an assessment of the economic situation in Belarus.: “Domestic demand in Belarus remains high, but foreign trade has slowed down. In January 2025, Belarus’ foreign trade turnover decreased by 5.1% YoY. The main factor was an 11.5% YoY decrease in exports caused by a reduction in shipments to non-CIS countries (-21.3% YoY). Exports to the CIS countries, a key sales market, decreased by 6.2% YoY due to increased competition and lower demand amid high interest rates in Russia. At the same time, imports increased by 1% YoY due to increased domestic demand. As a result, the deficit in foreign trade in goods widened to $0.5 billion from $0.1 billion a year earlier.”
The data is quite alarming, because, as EDB experts note, there is a clear downward trend in exports not only to some hostile countries, but also to the friendliest ones.
It is worth noting that on the eve of the head of the Presidential Administration Dmitry Krutoy, introducing the new chairman Roman Golovchenko, who previously served as Prime Minister, to the members of the Board of the National Bank, emphasized that one of the important tasks of the institution is to assist exporters. “These include new cross-border financing and export support schemes. The National Bank showed speed and efficiency, assisted in the reorientation of export flows to the markets of friendly countries. I think it will be even more convenient for our exporters to work in the near future,” Krutoy stressed.
Meanwhile, independent economists on opposition Internet resources are actively discussing the reasons for the decline in exports in the main direction – the Russian one.
According to Dmitry Kruk, a senior researcher at the BEROC research Center, the period from 2021 to 2023 was “the best in terms of foreign trade.” Belarusian exports to Russia grew rapidly. “Western suppliers left, Belarusians took their place. In general, the Russian economy was growing, and Belarusians were finding their market shares,” the expert notes.
But gradually the situation began to change. According to the economist, exports to Russia have been falling since mid-2024. “The scale of exports of strategic goods, such as petroleum products and potash fertilizers, is decreasing,” Kruk notes. But the main thing is that, according to him, the demand for Belarusian goods is falling.
Businessman and economic analyst Alexander Knyrovich echoes him: “The time window of opportunity has closed. It turned out that Belarusian trucks are not competitive compared to the Chinese. When Scania, Volvo and Mercedes left, it was not the Belarusian MAZ that entered the Russian market, but Chinese manufacturers.”
Moreover, according to the expert, this applies not only to heavy-duty vehicles, but also consumer goods: “MAZ is losing to the Chinese. Atlant’s standard refrigerator model is 20 percent more expensive than the same Chinese and Russian-built Chinese model. We were close by when the goods disappeared from the market, but that period is over.”
For now, food products certainly retain their positions in the Russian market. “Belarusian products have advantages: they are located in the same customs area, there is less logistical leverage, plus the history of the brands is positively perceived,” Dmitry Kruk notes.
But at the same time, the expert believes that overall exports have hit the ceiling. “Physical volumes peaked in August-September 2024. I think we should expect a downward deviation of 5%, in the worst case scenario – by 10%,” the economist believes.
At the same time, the expert reminds that it is necessary to take into account the other side of the imbalance – growing imports. “The overheated Belarusian economy places excessive demand on imports, which is also a problem,” explains Kruk. He points out that if it is difficult to solve the problem of falling exports, then imports can be reduced through administrative restrictions.
State-owned enterprises may be the first to suffer, which may be told to abandon the purchase of imported equipment. “The second “accused” is consumer imports, which are being blocked, from telling retailers to put imported goods on shelves away to artificial restrictions on consumer imports. This has already been done,” the expert notes.