Kazakhstan’s Parliament Reform Fuels Succession Speculation

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has announced a major parliamentary reform proposal to create a unicameral legislature by abolishing the upper house, the Senate. While officially framed as the next step in building a “Fair Kazakhstan,” analysts suggest the move is less about democratization and more about preparing the ground for a future power transition.

The proposal, which Tokayev presented during his annual address on September 8, aims to establish a new single-chamber parliament, the Majilis, to be elected via party-list voting in 2027. The president, who himself once led the Senate for a decade, positioned the reform as a logical continuation of his political modernization agenda, which gained public support in a 2022 referendum. The initiative will be subject to broad public and expert discussion before any constitutional changes are made.

However, political experts view the initiative through a more strategic lens. The key change lies in the constitutional hierarchy: the speaker of a unicameral parliament would automatically become the second most powerful figure in the state, directly in line to succeed the president. Critics argue this maneuver is a political tactic designed to create a powerful and loyal position that could be filled by a handpicked successor or even a former president, ensuring continuity of power for the ruling elite.

This speculation is amplified by the looming end of Tokayev’s presidential term in 2029. Political analyst Dosym Satpayev suggests that the president and his inner circle are exploring options to secure their influence long-term. The goal, according to Satpayev, is not a deep political reform but a “political technology” to form a parliament dependent on the presidential administration, dominated by pro-government parties and minimizing any risk of genuine opposition.

Adding to the intrigue are signs of infighting among the country’s elite, seen by some as jockeying for position ahead of a potential transition. The choice of Kazakhstan’s next leader is also expected to be influenced by major external powers. Analysts believe Russia might favor candidates from the “old guard” with clean reputations, such as CSTO Secretary General Imangali Tasmagambetov. Meanwhile, current Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu is seen as a potential successor who might garner support from China, highlighting the complex geopolitical balance that will shape Kazakhstan’s political future.