Trump Hints at Mass Prisoner Release, Upstaging Belarus Congress

A startling statement from former U.S. President Donald Trump has injected a new and unpredictable dynamic into the situation surrounding political prisoners in Belarus. Praising Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko as a “highly respected, strong man, a strong leader,” Trump suggested that the release of approximately 1,400 to 1,500 prisoners is being discussed and could happen “at some point in the fairly near future.” He noted that a recent release of 16 individuals, which reportedly included Siarhei Tsikhanouski, was a “very good gesture.”

This potential breakthrough comes just as Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s office announced the program for the second Congress on Political Prisoners, scheduled for September 26-28 in Warsaw and Poznan. The event aims to coordinate efforts to support inmates and their families. However, Trump’s intervention raises the ironic possibility that by the time the congress convenes, there may be significantly fewer prisoners to discuss, potentially rendering the event’s primary focus obsolete.

The Belarusian opposition has reacted with cautious optimism. Franak Viačorka, chief advisor to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, stated that the release of over a thousand people would be a major diplomatic victory for the White House, Trump, and “for a free Belarus.” Meanwhile, political analyst Alexander Klaskovsky noted the paradox, observing that the “cynical Trump” might be succeeding where years of Western expressions of “deep concern” have failed, comparing his approach to a tiger’s claws emerging from a soft paw.

Complicating the delicate diplomatic landscape is the recent arrest of a Polish citizen, Grzegorz Gawel, a Catholic monk of the contemplative Carmelite order, on charges of espionage. Belarusian authorities claim he was apprehended with a classified photocopy of a document concerning the joint Belarusian-Russian military exercise “Zapad-2025.” The incident has dramatically soured relations between Minsk and Warsaw.

The Belarusian Foreign Ministry summoned Poland’s Chargé d’Affaires, Krzysztof Ożanna, to issue a firm protest, and the Vatican was also informed. In response, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk dismissed the espionage allegations as “absurd” and threatened retaliatory measures. The Polish Foreign Ministry has issued a strong travel advisory, urging its citizens to refrain from traveling to Belarus, labeling it an “undemocratic state” and “unfriendly towards Poland,” warning that the situation could turn unfavorable for any Polish nationals in the country.