Belarus: Goats, AI Hubs, and the Specter of New Sanctions

As Belarus positions itself as a key partner for the BRICS nations in high-tech sectors, the country faces the impending threat of a new, stricter round of EU sanctions. At the recent BRICS summit, Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov championed Belarus as a future platform for advanced logistics hubs, leveraging technologies like blockchain and AI. He argued that Belarus is committed to technological sovereignty and stands against “digital colonialism,” urging the bloc to take a leading role in shaping global AI regulations. Ryzhenkov also condemned existing sanctions, claiming they hinder not only Belarus but also global efforts to combat climate change and disease.

In a stark contrast to this high-level diplomatic push, President Alexander Lukashenko was focused on a more traditional sector of the economy. During a visit to a goat breeding farm near Mogilev, he was gifted two young goats and praised the enterprise’s success in exporting its animals to Uzbekistan and Russia. Inspired, Lukashenko ordered production to be doubled by mid-2026, remarking, “This is real cash. We must go for the maximum. If there’s a moment to earn money, we must earn it and capture the market.” After sampling the farm’s products, he stressed the importance of marketing, noting, “You have to get this cheese into people’s heads and prove to them that it is very useful.”

This domestic focus on agriculture unfolds against a backdrop of increasing international pressure. The European Union is reportedly preparing its 18th sanctions package targeting both Russia and Belarus. Political analysts warn that the new measures could include a full ban on operations with Belarusian banks, significantly complicating financial transactions for ordinary citizens and businesses. The move is widely seen as an attempt to close loopholes that allow Russia to circumvent its own sanctions through Belarus.

According to political analyst Artyom Shraibman, Minsk’s recent responses to sanctions have been asymmetrical and less confrontational, sometimes even using them as a pretext to address domestic shortages, such as allowing Polish apples into the country. However, he warns that further tightening could provoke a harsher reaction from Lukashenko, who may feel his recent gestures—such as the year-long release of political opponents—are being deliberately ignored by the EU.

Shraibman suggests that an angered Lukashenko might halt the release of political prisoners, though such a move would likely not be felt directly by the EU. The analyst offers a pragmatic assessment, stating that when Brussels deliberates on sanctions, the interests of the Belarusian people are not a priority. “We must be extremely realistic: our interests are not the priority,” he concluded, highlighting the grim reality that Belarus is being punished primarily as a consequence of its close alliance with Russia.