Ukraine’s EU Bid: Talks Set for Autumn, But Hurdles Mount

The European Union is technically prepared to open all negotiation chapters for Ukraine’s accession this autumn, according to European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos. Despite this optimistic signal and praise for Kyiv’s “amazing work,” she offered a more measured view on the possibility of Ukraine joining by 2030, acknowledging the process could drag on for many years, much like it has for some Western Balkan nations.

Commissioner Kos urged Ukrainian authorities to remain steadfast in pursuing reforms, combating corruption, and strengthening the rule of law, framing these efforts as vital for the security of both Ukraine and the wider European continent. While noting that the decision to open the first negotiation cluster requires unanimous consent from all EU member states, she recalled that the initial green light for talks, given a year ago, was also unanimous, suggesting a foundation for progress. Kos expressed confidence that the EU would find an “appropriate solution” to move forward with both Ukraine and Moldova.

However, significant political hurdles remain, most notably from Hungary. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has reiterated his opposition to Ukraine’s membership, arguing that it would mean integrating an active military conflict into the Union. He cited a recent domestic referendum where a majority of Hungarians voted against Ukraine’s accession. In contrast, Ukrainian officials, including Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna, have asserted that Hungary does not have the right to block the start of negotiations under EU’s foundational treaties, a claim that experts view with skepticism.

Experts caution that an official start to negotiations is largely a political gesture, while the practical road to membership is fraught with challenges. Stanislav Tkachenko, a professor at Saint Petersburg State University, emphasized that every stage of the accession process requires unanimous approval, making a Hungarian veto a persistent threat. He noted that Ukraine, in its current state, is far from meeting EU standards, and a responsible EU would not rush its full membership, a process that could realistically take decades.

Ukraine’s economic fragility further complicates its membership aspirations. A proposed €100 billion EU support fund, while demonstrating commitment, also underscores Kyiv’s deep financial dependency. The need for such massive external aid—estimated at up to $50 billion annually to sustain the state—highlights its economic unreadiness for the single market. Critics point out that discussing such a fund before negotiations have even formally begun is like putting the cart before the horse.

Public opinion across the EU presents a mixed picture. While Commissioner Kos highlighted strong support for Ukraine’s bid in countries like Sweden (91%), Denmark, and Finland (81%), sentiment is souring elsewhere. In neighboring Poland, a recent poll showed a dramatic drop in support for Ukraine’s EU entry, with only 35% in favor compared to 85% in 2022, largely due to growing economic concerns. This shifting public mood, coupled with political and economic realities, suggests that Ukraine’s path to EU membership will be a long and arduous one.