Georgia’s Post-Election Storm: ‘Dream’ Victory Amidst Unrest and Coup Claims

Georgia’s recent municipal elections, held on October 4th, have plunged the nation into renewed political turmoil, with the ruling Georgian Dream party declaring a resounding victory even as the capital, Tbilisi, experienced significant post-electoral protests. Government officials have controversially framed the ensuing unrest as an attempted coup, a narrative that sharply contrasts with the widespread public discontent.

According to the Central Election Commission, the Georgian Dream party achieved an overwhelming win across all regions. Notably, Kakha Kaladze secured re-election as Tbilisi’s mayor with 71.58% of the vote. Overall, the ruling party garnered 81% of the ballots cast. However, this impressive tally came against a backdrop of historically low voter engagement, with a national turnout of just 40.93%. Tbilisi itself saw an even lower participation rate at 31.8%, significantly down from the 51.92% in the 2021 municipal elections and 58.94% in the 2024 parliamentary elections.

The outcome of the elections quickly receded into the background as events in central Tbilisi took a dramatic turn. Following the closure of polling stations, thousands of demonstrators, estimated by eyewitnesses and analysts at over 100,000, converged. A segment of these protesters reportedly attempted to storm the presidential residence, leading to a swift and forceful intervention by special forces, who deployed tear gas and water cannons. Official reports indicate 6 demonstrators and 21 police officers sustained injuries during the clashes.

In the aftermath, authorities moved swiftly, apprehending several key opposition figures on October 4th. Among those arrested were Irakli Nadiradze and Murtaz Zodelava of the United National Movement (UNM), former Deputy Chief of General Staff of the Georgian Armed Forces Lasha Beridze, Paata Manjgaladze, Secretary General of the Strategy Aghmashenebeli party, and renowned opera singer Paata Burchuladze, founder of the Rustaveli Prospect public platform. They now face charges of “organizing group violence,” which carry potential prison sentences of up to nine years.

Curiously, several opposition parties, including Lelo and Gakharia for Georgia – parties that chose to participate in the municipal elections unlike some of their counterparts – quickly distanced themselves from the violence. Former Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili also disavowed any connection to the events. These groups suggested that the unrest might have been a deliberate provocation by the Georgian Dream to discredit the broader protest movement and opposition.

The pro-government TV channel Imedi subsequently aired an audio recording, purportedly featuring Burchuladze discussing plans for orchestrating disturbances, including the suggestion that “blood must be spilled” to make a coup irreversible. While the channel did not officially vouch for the recording’s authenticity, and observers noted inconsistencies in the dialogue and tone, authorities have nevertheless deemed it crucial evidence in their investigation into an alleged attempted seizure of power.

Internationally, reactions have been mixed. Moldovan President Maia Sandu was quick to express solidarity, stating, “My thoughts are with the people of Georgia who are defending freedom and their European future. Democracy cannot be silenced. Moldova is on your side.” However, many other European leaders have conspicuously remained silent on the unfolding events.

Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, on the other hand, issued a stern message to European leaders, urging them to emulate Georgian law enforcement in handling future protests within their own countries. He also laid blame for the unrest squarely at the feet of the European Union, alleging that “some individuals from abroad even expressed direct support for the attempt to overthrow the constitutional order, including an EU representative… In this context, the EU Ambassador to Georgia bears particular responsibility for this.” Kobakhidze further asserted the government’s commitment to “fully neutralize the collective national movement” to establish a “healthy, democratic political system.”

Political analyst Nika Chitadze remarked that neither the ruling party nor the opposition appears to have gained significant advantage from the recent elections. Despite Kaladze’s re-election, it occurred with exceptionally low turnout, while the opposition, he argues, has yet to offer a compelling alternative beyond the promise of governmental change. Chitadze warned that Georgian society remains deeply divided, the opposition is in dire need of new leadership, and the Georgian Dream must urgently foster dialogue to prevent further societal fragmentation. He highlighted the technical possibility of the government, with a Constitutional Court under its control, banning opposition parties, but cautioned that such measures would not win over the populace or resolve the underlying political chasm.