Central Asia’s New Gamble: Billions for Taliban-led Afghanistan

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are spearheading a significant strategic pivot in Central Asia, transforming Afghanistan from a perceived security threat into a promising economic partner. This new approach aims to bolster regional stability through robust trade and investment, a stark contrast to the West’s policy of sanctions and isolation. Both Astana and Tashkent are now actively engaging with the Taliban-led administration, betting that economic development is the key to a stable Afghanistan.

A recent high-level visit to Kabul by Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Murat Nurtleu, underscored this shift. Following the trip, both nations set an ambitious goal to increase their bilateral trade turnover to $3 billion. Nurtleu emphasized that Astana views Afghanistan as an integral part of the Central Asian region, historically and geographically, and is committed to fostering an atmosphere of trust and cooperation.

Uzbekistan has been a trailblazer in this engagement, having established dialogue with the Taliban soon after they came to power. Tashkent operates on the belief that lasting stability in Afghanistan can only be achieved through socio-economic progress, driven by foreign investment. Underscoring this strategy, Uzbekistan has already invested over a billion dollars in Afghan gold and copper mining and recently signed 35 agreements worth nearly $3 billion, covering both trade and investment.

Kazakhstan is following suit, ready to increase its exports of agricultural products, fuel, lubricants, and chemical goods. A critical element of this strategy is the development of efficient transport infrastructure. Both sides are focused on the Trans-Afghan route, with Kazakhstan confirming its intention to invest in the construction of the Turgundi-Herat railway, a project that would create jobs in Afghanistan and better connect Central and South Asia.

Beyond trade, the cooperation extends to humanitarian and cultural spheres. Kazakhstan has pledged to expand humanitarian programs to improve food security and healthcare access for the Afghan population. It also announced plans to double the number of university scholarships for Afghan students. In return, Kazakhstan aims to increase imports of Afghan produce, such as fruits and beverages, providing its consumers with fresh goods during the off-season and giving Afghan farmers access to a vast new market.

This deepening economic partnership is unfolding against a backdrop of shifting geopolitical alignments. Following Russia’s decision to formally recognize the government in Kabul, speculation is rising that Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan may follow suit. Formal recognition would allow Astana and Tashkent to solidify their ties, sign larger, long-term contracts, and attract more significant investment.

However, regional experts suggest that while Central Asian nations are eager to work with Kabul, they may proceed with caution. Alexander Knyazev, a leading researcher at the MGIMO Institute for International Studies, notes that the Western reaction to Russia’s move has been muted so far, but countries like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan might still fear potential backlash. “It seems more likely that China, Iran, and some Arab countries might recognize the Kabul government,” Knyazev noted, suggesting that Central Asian states might opt to continue their practical cooperation without formal political declarations for the time being.