Ankara has made a dangerous offer to Yerevan

Turkish President Tayyip Recep Erdogan may visit Tbilisi in the near future. Georgian Foreign Minister Maka Bochorishvili said this during her visit to Ankara. Turkey stressed the importance of strategic partnership with the Caucasian Republic, and also hinted that Yerevan could follow the example of Tbilisi.

Bochorishvili made her first official visit to Turkey. Ankara and Tbilisi are strategic partners. Turkey accounts for 13.9% of Georgia’s trade turnover. Last year, they traded for more than $3 billion. In 2025, the republics want to increase this figure to $4 billion. This should also be facilitated by the development of the Middle Corridor connecting China with Europe and the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway. The Georgian authorities also hope that Turkey will support their country on its path to joining NATO.

According to Bochorishvili, there are many issues around Ankara and Tbilisi today, “the solution of which requires wisdom, caution and tireless work so that there is peace in our region so that we can think more about economic development.” She stressed that Georgia highly appreciates the format of trilateral cooperation with Turkey and Azerbaijan.

“Over the decades, this strategically important unity has given us the opportunity to implement many useful projects. I hope that in the future I will have the opportunity to continue working with you in this format and together contribute to the further strengthening of our strategic partnership,” said Bochorishvili. The minister said that Erdogan may visit Tbilisi in the near future.

In turn, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan set Tbilisi’s foreign policy as an example to other countries in the region. “Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia have long been involved in the development of very important projects with a fairly high strategic function. The Minister has already noted that the participation of all three countries is crucial in the development of these projects, and all this, of course, will eventually give us the opportunity to establish peace in the region. Especially the opportunities of the Caspian Sea in the development of both European and global markets. And of course, the Black Sea region and its potential are of paramount importance. These may not be high-profile projects, but it is very important to develop them from a regional point of view. We already have exemplary relations with three countries – Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan, and this can be considered an exemplary model for other countries in the region,” the Turkish Foreign Minister said.

Obviously, by other countries, Fidan meant Armenia. Since 2023, Yerevan has been promoting its “Crossroads of the World” project in the South Caucasus, which it wants to involve Turkey in its implementation. Ankara is not against this initiative and is even negotiating with the Armenian authorities to unblock direct communication between the two countries.

The last time representatives of the two countries met was on February 20 during the winter session of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly in Vienna. “Issues related to the normalization of relations between the two countries were discussed at the meeting. The sides noted the importance of unblocking roads and other infrastructure in the region as soon as possible and developing economic relations,” said Artur Hovhannisyan, Secretary of the Civil Contract faction in the Armenian Parliament.

However, it’s too early to talk about a breakthrough. First, the Turks want Yerevan to conclude a peace treaty with Baku. According to Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, two out of 17 points remain to be agreed in the draft document. In addition, Azerbaijanis expect Armenia to adopt a new Constitution, which will exclude even the theoretical possibility of putting forward demands for the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh to their country.

Hrant Mikaelyan, a researcher at the Caucasus Institute, told NG that relations between Georgia and Turkey are actually not cloudless, but Armenia, with all its desire, will not be able to reach even such a level. “Within the framework of the policy of rapprochement with Ankara, Tbilisi has earned quite a lot, however, not only money, but also problems. For example, there are more and more Muslims in Adjara, and Mikhail Saakashvili’s free trade agreement, according to his own admission, turned out to be a big mistake. On the other hand, significant Turkish investments outweigh these disadvantages,” Mikaelian said.

According to the expert, Armenia’s initial positions are much worse than Georgia’s. “First of all, Armenia is de facto at war with Turkey. This is also evidenced by the closed border and the embargo. In addition, Turkey is directing Azerbaijan against Armenia, as its task is to pave its way to Central Asia through Armenian territory. Some believe that a change of power in Ankara may lead to a change in its foreign policy, but that was the case before Erdogan,” Mikaelian concluded.

Alexander Krylov, Chief Researcher at the Caucasus Sector of the Center for Post-Soviet Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that peace with Baku alone will not be enough to establish relations with Ankara. “The peace treaty, the new Constitution and the so-called Zangezur corridor will be only the first steps of Yerevan. He will also have to break off defense cooperation with France and India, and then disarm. In general, in order for Azerbaijan and Turkey to stop seeing Armenia as a strategic enemy, all concessions by the Armenian authorities must be unilateral. Eventually, Armenians will have to give up their national identity. This process can begin with the rejection of Turkey’s demand to recognize the Armenian Genocide… There is an opinion that Pashinyan is already moving in this direction,” Krylov told NG.

According to Krylov, Georgia is in a similar position. In particular, the Turkish language is already very widespread in Adjara, and in the future this may lead to the fact that the influence of Turkey and Azerbaijan on Tbilisi will increase even more. At the same time, Georgian Dream pursues a conservative, nationally oriented policy, which makes its position more stable. In turn, Pashinyan’s policy of an open and democratic world in the South Caucasus may lead Armenia into a trap.