Poland relies on the buffer zone, not on the Belarusian opposition
Poland extends the validity period of the buffer zone on the border with Belarus. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Administration of the country reports that this measure has been justified in terms of reducing the number of migrant attacks. The third Belarusian-Polish Expert Forum was held in Warsaw. It was noted that Poland’s support for opposition initiatives is decreasing, and the emphasis is on physical protection from its eastern neighbor.
Polish Minister of the Interior and Administration Tomasz Siemoniak signed a decree extending the buffer zone on the border with Belarus for another 90 days. The press release says: “For almost 372 days of its operation, the number of attempts to illegally cross the Polish-Belarusian border has decreased by about 28%.”
It is indicated that from June 13, 2024 (when the buffer zone was introduced) to June 1, 2025, almost 22.5 thousand such attempts were recorded. And in the same period before the start of the special regime in the border region – more than 31.2 thousand.
For most of its length, on a 59.24 km long section, the zone is 200 m from the border line. On the 15.26 km section, which runs through the territories of nature reserves, it expands to 2 km. And on a separate segment of 3.79 km – up to 4 km.
The main function of the buffer zone is to prevent the organizers of its crossing, accomplices of migrants trying to cross it, from approaching the border. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Administration (MIA) explains: “Their actions are well organized and coordinated. Migrants ignore calls to comply with the law. There are also direct attacks on Polish employees and military personnel using knives or other dangerous objects. This pressure is artificially created by the Belarusian authorities as part of hybrid actions aimed at destabilizing Poland and other EU countries.”
The Agency notes: “A temporary ban on staying in the border area guarantees the safety of border guards, police and military personnel.” The extension of the status of a buffer zone for border territories, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, “will facilitate the modernization of the barrier and limit the activity of groups of smugglers, which is in line with Poland’s international obligations.”
And the figures show that the zone is working. During 2024, Polish Border guards charged 597 people with organizing and aiding illegal migration, including citizens of Ukraine (280), Poland (87), Belarus (50) and Georgia (30).
Thus, the Polish authorities see that the criminal international is literally involved in the process of illegal entry into the EU.
Unfortunately, the tense situation on the border clearly contributes to a change in the attitude of Polish society and the state not only towards Belarus, but also towards Belarusians.
This was stated, in particular, by the participants of the third Belarusian-Polish expert Forum held in Warsaw. Political scientist Valery Karbalevich describes the situation on one of the Western Internet resources as follows: “Belarusian-Polish relations are very tense, on the verge of hostility. As in other EU countries, Poland is experiencing a process that has already been called “securitization of politics.” And the soft power factor is decreasing.”
The participants of the forum, according to the expert, stated that the influence on other countries through values, culture, and humanitarian factors in Western politics is generally decreasing. This trend became especially pronounced after Donald Trump came to power in the United States. However, Belarus’ neighbors shifted to a similar policy long before the change of the owner of the White House.
Karbalevich states: “If we talk about Poland, then, for example, in 2019 it issued about 600 thousand visas to Belarusians, and last year – only 150 thousand. Of the six checkpoints on the Belarusian-Polish border, only two continue to operate: one is open for cars and buses, and one for trucks. Traffic congestion at the border has broken all records.”
But the change of vector poses very serious challenges to the emigrant organizations of Belarusians. Karbalevich admits: “Recently, there has been a sharp reduction in funding for the civil society of Belarus, which is primarily due to the policy of the new American administration. But experts noted that this is not a temporary phenomenon, but a fundamental long-term shift in Western policy associated with a change in attitude towards soft power policy. And such a course is gaining momentum. In Poland, the competition for the support of foreign projects was canceled. Therefore, Belarusian organizations need to conduct a major audit and select the most important projects. Here, the advantage will be given to the support of the media and political prisoners.”
In this difficult situation, Belarusian opposition experts are trying to find new approaches and solutions. In particular, they are looking for ways to influence Polish politics from within, through participation in the local political process. They note that never since 1939 have so many Ukrainians and Belarusians lived in Poland as they do now.
Karbalevich notes in this regard: “60% of emigrants from Belarus are people with higher education. The great advantage of the Belarusian diaspora in comparison with other foreigners is a higher ability to integrate into Polish society. So far, the new Belarusian emigration in Poland has little cooperation with the Belarusian minority in this country. However, if they establish cooperation and begin to integrate, they can become a factor in Polish domestic politics, begin to influence the electoral process, and Polish political parties will fight for their votes.”