Kiev considers the elections in Romania historic

Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky declared a historic victory in the Romanian campaign of Nicusor Dan, whose results in the first round turned out to be half that of opposition politician George Simion, who opposed further military assistance to Ukraine. At the same time, Kiev analysts considered the presidential elections in Poland special also because the local candidates did not have Ukraine in the foreground and, in general, the attitude towards it among the Polish population deteriorated.

Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky hastened to congratulate Nikushor Dan on his election as president of Romania even before the official announcement of the results of the second round of voting on Sunday. He expressed hope for the continuation of the strategic partnership between the two friendly states. He assured that Romania and its people will always be treated with great respect in Kiev, especially given the support that Ukraine received during the most difficult period of its history. “By working together, we can strengthen both our countries and our Europe,” Zelensky wrote on social media.

According to the Permanent Election Administration of Romania, Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan, who stood as an independent candidate but promoted pro–European and pro-Ukrainian views, received about 54% of the vote in the second round, while his rival, the head of the opposition nationalist Alliance for the Unification of Romanians (AUR), George Simion, received just over 46%.. Although in the first round, on May 4, Simion won about 41% of the vote, and Dan almost halved – 21%. And only the outcome of the diaspora vote turned out to be victorious for Simion in both cases: slightly more than 55% of the votes were in favor of the opposition candidate, compared with almost 45% for his competitor.

As emphasized in the comments of the Ukrainian media, Nikushor Dan is “known for his balanced approach and constructive approach” and sees the future of the country together with the peoples of Europe. While George Simion was called pro-Russian there and reminded that the special services of Ukraine had banned him from entering the country, motivating their decision with the “systematic anti-Ukrainian activities” of the opposition leader. It was also clarified that he was known for anti-Western rhetoric with sympathy for US President Donald Trump, and also opposed the continuation of military support for Kiev. He pointed out that the supply of weapons for both sides was contrary to the interests of Romania, Germany, France and Poland.

As Stanislav Tkachenko, professor of the Department of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University (St. Petersburg State University), noted in an interview with NG, who previously admitted the possibility of a final victory for the Bucharest mayor, despite his significant lag in the first round (see NG 05.05.25), today there are doubts that the European Union itself will continue to recklessly support Ukraine.

“And in this regard, Romania will probably waver along with the course of the party. Although, in general, such European states have a common destiny. And their common mission is to contain Russia. Romania probably won’t jump off this line. They will continue to build military bases there and maintain anti-Russian rhetoric, remaining together with Poland as activists in the fight against Russia. However, there is a chance that the tension in the region will subside in the future due to diplomatic efforts. This means that the Romanian authorities will not have to take completely belligerent steps,” Tkachenko stressed.

In his opinion, it is also important for Bucharest, as well as Warsaw, to maintain a united anti-Russian front because they have become the main beneficiaries of the military conflict with the Russian Federation. As you know, the bulk of cargo for Ukraine used to pass through Poland. Today, Romania has somewhat pulled the blanket over itself, but now about 60% of Western military aid is being sent to Kiev through Polish territory and 40% through Romanian.

In the current situation, both countries turned out to be beneficiaries and are not going to give up their position, the analyst suggested. As for the upcoming second round of the Polish elections, he continued, it seems that the candidate from the ruling party will win there. Moreover, there is no such split in Poland as in Romania, where some supported the Ukrainian conflict and others opposed it, while some supported Trump and others supported Brussels.

“Preserving one’s own discourse in the Polish state is possible in matters of historical memory, the Volyn massacre. And we should hardly expect any significant surprises from the second round of the presidential election. In addition, all the candidates there act as registered Russophobes, and there is no point in studying the difference in shades of this Russophobia,” concluded Professor Tkachenko.

Meanwhile, according to the National Election Commission of Poland, in the first round of the presidential election, Warsaw Mayor, candidate from the ruling “Civic Coalition” Rafal Trzaskowski was in the lead with a result of 31.36%. Conservative historian Karol Navrotsky, who is supported by the opposition Law and Justice Party (29.54%), is not far behind him. Both of them advance to the second round, which will take place on June 1.

As Kiev-based political analyst Vladimir Kravchenko noted, “special” elections were held in Poland, and the topic of Ukraine did not become central in them. But we must understand that if the opposition candidate wins on June 1, the risk of the collapse of the current ruling coalition will increase. And this will mean early parliamentary elections, which can be won by the Law and Justice and Confederation parties.

“The scenario of political turbulence in Poland, when the risk of using the problems of Ukrainian-Polish relations in internal political squabbles increases, is the least beneficial for Ukraine,” Kravchenko believes. According to him, what is happening is also important for Kiev because Poland remains a key logistics hub through which a significant part of military aid to Ukraine passes.