Lukashenka’s Bold Vision: A ‘Grand Bargain’ with US, Peace for Ukraine
In a pivotal meeting this Tuesday, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka convened his closest advisors to discuss the global international situation and the trajectory of Belarus-US relations. From this high-stakes discussion, a series of impactful declarations emerged, most notably Lukashenka’s expressed readiness to engage in a substantive “grand bargain” with the United States. He also took the opportunity to harshly criticize the Nobel Committee, preemptively dismissing any potential award for himself, while simultaneously advocating strongly for peace in Ukraine. Observers suggest that the US actions concerning Belarus, particularly those under the perceived influence of former President Donald Trump, might be aimed at softening the global image of certain actors, moving away from a perception of pure pragmatism.
The meeting, presided over by the Belarusian leader, gathered an assembly of high-ranking officials, including Prime Minister Alexander Turchin, State Secretary of the Security Council Alexander Volfovich, Head of the Presidential Administration Dmitry Krutoy, Prosecutor General Andrey Shved, and KGB Chairman Ivan Tertel. Lukashenka openly admitted to this inner circle, “I would like to consult with you today on a number of issues. We need to discuss first and foremost the global international situation, how it is characterized, and what place Belarus occupies in this global context. That is first. And second, a very important issue – our relations with the United States of America.”
While the global situation is a frequent topic for the president, his remarks regarding relations with America carried significant weight. Lukashenka noted that the bilateral dialogue had gained “some positive momentum.” He added, “Perhaps it is time to say something about this. But before speaking about Belarusian-American relations and especially their prospects, I would like to consult with you today.”
He further elaborated on the necessity for detailed discussion: “Considering the emerging progress in contacts with Washington, we need to develop a further algorithm for Belarusian-American relations for the future. In doing so, we must more clearly define our priorities. It is also important to establish, as is fashionable to say now, ‘red lines,’ the crossing of which is unacceptable for us. It is vital to ensure that our actions in no way harm not only Belarusian-Russian but also Belarusian-Chinese relations, as well as our obligations to other friendly countries within Belarus’s participation in Eurasian integration associations.”
Indeed, these are complex issues, especially as Belarus, according to its president, may be prepared to make certain compromises and take initial steps, expecting Americans to fulfill their promises. As an example, he cited the situation with the lifting of sanctions against the airline Belavia. Lukashenka explained, “Our Belavia leaders state that the lifting of these sanctions does not yet fully free Belavia from some silly obligations. And we cannot always and everywhere fly, repair, or buy. The Americans acknowledge this. They say it will take some time to eliminate these ‘tails.’ Good.”
Yet, the Belarusian president’s trust extends beyond mere compliance on specific issues; he appears ready for a more expansive engagement. “We will await their global proposals, a grand bargain, as they like to call it (they love these grand bargains). We are ready for it. We are ready to conclude a grand bargain with them. On one side of the scale are their questions, requests, and demands; on the other side are our questions and demands. Shall we resolve it? Let’s resolve it. We are ready for this. I absolutely assess Donald Trump’s proposals in this regard as normal. But our interests must also be taken into account. And everything must be fair, as we once agreed with the Americans,” Lukashenka emphasized.
He also revealed, “If the Americans want to resolve the conflict in Ukraine and see some small role for us there, we are ready to participate.” He then delivered what was arguably one of his most striking peacemaking pronouncements: “We have stated our position: peace, peace, and only peace. Ukraine must exist as a sovereign independent state. We are for the war to be stopped now, otherwise this independent sovereign state will disappear. Especially since some (you know who) are already looking at the western regions of Ukraine.”
The participants in the meeting reportedly nodded in understanding. However, Lukashenka immediately offered his unsolicited advice to the US president: “No ‘Tomahawks’ will solve the problem. This will escalate the situation to a nuclear war. Probably Donald Trump understands this better than anyone, as he is not rushing to hand over this deadly weapon and allow strikes deep into Russia, as President Zelensky expects.” Lukashenka subsequently launched another scathing critique of the Nobel Committee, branding it a politicized body, but then demonstrated an intriguing awareness of alleged clandestine agreements: “The non-awarding of the Nobel Prize to Donald Trump, considering statements by various Nobel laureates, can also be accepted. They promise that next year he will definitely receive the Nobel Peace Prize.”
The president further shared his personal reflections: “If any of you or I were offered this prize, I would definitely refuse it. Because, listen, we know from our figures what contribution they have made to establishing peace in the world generally. They have done nothing. On the contrary – they have contributed and are pushing Belarus towards this so-called war.” The Belarusian president drew a conclusion: “If a prize is promised to Donald Trump next year, it means we can expect him to pursue a policy of peace. At least until he receives this Nobel Prize. But that he will receive it is undeniable. To congratulate him on this, I emphasize again, we should not.”
Meanwhile, political scientist Alexander Klaskovsky, writing on an opposition online resource, offered his interpretation of Trump’s logic concerning Belarus, particularly in the context of a future Nobel nomination: “If it is possible to free about 1,300 hostages of the Lukashenka regime – that would also look like a triumph and, presumably, increase his chances for the Nobel. The Belarusian case is also beneficial for Trump in that it appears as a counterbalance to the opinion of him as an absolute cynic, humanizing his image.”