Kazakhstan Eyes Food Sovereignty Amid Regional Water Woes
Kazakhstan is making significant strides toward food sovereignty within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), boasting some of the lowest retail prices for essential goods and setting an ambitious goal of full self-sufficiency by 2028. However, this agricultural ambition is overshadowed by a growing water deficit, compelling Astana to demand a more equitable distribution of water resources from its Central Asian neighbors.
The nation’s push for food security is a coordinated effort between two key ministries: the Ministry of Agriculture, tasked with ensuring sufficient production, and the Ministry of Trade and Integration, responsible for maintaining affordable prices. These objectives are formally outlined in national development plans extending to 2030.
Recent reports from a government meeting chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin highlighted substantial progress. Over the last five years, Kazakhstan’s total food production has surged by 11.3% to a value of 8.3 trillion tenge (approximately $15.5 million). The horticulture sector saw a 14% increase, while livestock production grew by 5.6%. In the first half of 2025, farmers expanded cultivation areas, prioritizing profitable crops like sunflowers over traditional grains, and slightly increased potato plantings.
The livestock industry has also seen positive trends, with rising numbers of cattle, sheep, horses, and poultry leading to higher output of meat, milk, and eggs. Deputy Minister of Agriculture Ermek Kenzhekhanuly reported that the country is now 80-100% self-sufficient in key products like meat, milk, eggs, vegetables, and flour. Despite this, Kazakhstan still relies on imports for poultry, processed meats, cheese, sugar, and fish.
To bridge these gaps, Kazakhstan is aggressively investing in new infrastructure. Between 2022 and 2024, 17 new poultry farms began operations, raising self-sufficiency from 67% to 79%. An additional 41 poultry farms are planned by 2028, which officials believe will achieve complete independence in this sector. Similarly, the dairy industry is expanding with 69 active farms and 47 more under construction, which are expected to boost milk production by 600,000 tons annually and cover the national demand for cheese and cottage cheese.
On the economic front, the Ministry of Trade and Integration has successfully curbed inflation for socially significant food items. First Vice Minister Aizhan Bizhanova noted that price growth slowed from 8% in the first quarter to just 0.1% in the first half of August. Consequently, Kazakhstan now has the lowest market prices in the EAEU for 15 essential goods, including sunflower oil, rice, flour, and vegetables.
Yet, all these achievements are contingent on a single, vital resource: water. The development of agriculture, from crop cultivation to livestock farming, is impossible without it. As climate change intensifies and populations grow, securing an adequate water supply has become a critical issue of national security, not just for Kazakhstan but for the entire Central Asian region.
The urgency of the water crisis was recently underscored by Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbayev at a meeting of the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination of Central Asia. He bluntly stated that regional water resources must be distributed fairly, criticizing the failure of neighboring countries to adhere to previous agreements. “This is not just a statistic; it is a real threat to those who live downstream,” Bozumbayev warned, urging a shift from empty promises to concrete, collaborative action.
His concerns are validated by recent data. While Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan had reportedly agreed to supply 600 million cubic meters of water to help Kazakhstan’s southern regions, the latest figures show a delivery shortfall of over one billion cubic meters. This failure to meet commitments fuels long-standing expert warnings about the potential for water-based conflicts in a region grappling with shared rivers and an increasingly arid climate.