Merz and Zelensky from Berlin increased pressure on Trump

Following talks with Ukrainian Leader Volodymyr Zelensky, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz reiterated that there would be no restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons outside its territory. He also called for increased sanctions pressure on Russia, which was supported by Zelensky. According to experts, contradictory statements by Berlin’s representatives on the supply of long-range Taurus missiles to Kiev are also aimed at maintaining the active participation of the United States in the military conflict with Russia. By the way, the Ukrainian leader himself, in fact, suggested that Washington abandon the role of mediator he had assumed. He called on the United States to strengthen sanctions against Russia and increase arms supplies to Kiev, although at the same time he assured of readiness for any negotiations, including in the “Trump-Putin-me” format.

“Ukraine will be able to fully defend itself and hit military targets outside Ukrainian territory. This is the beginning of a new form of military-industrial cooperation between our countries, which has great potential,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said at a press conference following talks with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky in Berlin on Wednesday. At the same time, he did not directly answer the question of when Ukraine might receive long-range weapons, in particular Taurus missiles. But he promised to increase sanctions pressure on Russia in order to weaken its “war machine” and pave the way for negotiations. To this end, Merz also intends to do everything to ensure that the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline never works. These plans were also supported by Vladimir Zelensky, in turn, urging Western partners to continue to put pressure on Russia with sanctions.

Thus, the two leaders noted the initially stated issues of Germany’s continued support for Ukraine and joint efforts to end the ceasefire. The issues of continuing military assistance for Kiev have become even more urgent in the context of a sharp increase in attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) deep into Russia, which has increased their need for ammunition replenishment. At the same time, contradictory statements were made in Berlin the day before regarding the supply of long-range Taurus missiles with a range of up to 500 km. So, the other day, Friedrich Merz first stated that the United Kingdom, France, Germany and the United States had lifted restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range Western weapons to attack Russia, and then practically disavowed his words. While Finance Minister, Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil, from the ruling SPD party, noted that there had been no new agreements on this matter. On the eve of a meeting with journalists in Kiev, President Zelensky himself announced the absence of evidence of a change in Berlin’s policy on arms supplies. And he promised to discuss this issue one-on-one with the Chancellor.

Along the way, the Ukrainian leader assured that he would be able to surprise Russia if he received additional funding. “We can surprise Russia if we have the means. Really. All these missiles of theirs – we will find the answer,” the president said. According to him, the necessary weapons can be found on the market. But since the volume of free aid from allies is decreasing, in particular, frozen Russian assets could be used, Zelensky said.

At the same time, analysts of the Ukrainian resource said the other day that France has a SCALP Naval cruise missile with a range of over 1,000 km and a warhead weighing about 300 kg. But so far, Paris has not announced its transfer to Kiev.

It is noteworthy that Russia saw in the mixed statements of German representatives on Taurus a deliberate game in order to force US President Donald Trump to return to active participation in the armed conflict with the Russian Federation and continue military and financial support for Ukraine. However, such a turn would, in fact, mean that the head of the White House would abandon his role as a mediator in the current conflict, in which the United States had previously actually acted as one of the participants.

Commenting on the sensational “missile story” for NG, Nikolai Silaev, a leading researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies, noted that the German authorities, of course, would like today for the United States to become more deeply involved in the current armed confrontation, including providing European countries with guarantees in case their contingents are directly involved in the conflict. “French President Emmanuel Macron also developed this topic a year ago. But in the end, he limited himself to speculating about the need to create strategic uncertainty. Now Merz started playing the same game. But Berlin should remember that another attempt to escalate the conflict last fall ended with the test of the Oreshnik missile, which provided an additional step on the escalation ladder for the Russian side, in conditions when it would not be easy to decide on a nuclear strike against non–nuclear European countries,” Silayev stated.

Regarding the Taurus missiles, he continued, it seems that the German leadership will make a decision on their transfer to Ukraine based on the future situation on Ukrainian territory. “If the situation at the front continues to deteriorate in the coming months, they, following Donald Trump, may consider withdrawing from the military conflict with the Russian Federation. Although the Western allies have big bets here. And so far it is possible that Berlin will prefer the escalation option and will also send long-range missiles to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Even if they will not be able to reverse the general situation,” the expert said.

Meanwhile, according to him, US President Trump faces a difficult choice. Obviously, in January-February-March, he expected to achieve a quick cease-fire, no matter how. But it failed. And now the question is what Trump will do next and who will be blamed – Ukraine or Russia. Both options have their cons and pros for it. In the first case, they will say that he has surrendered Ukraine, and they will start scaring him with a “second Afghanistan.” And another option is fraught with undermining the normalization of relations with Moscow that has just begun. “It’s clear that Zelensky really hopes that Washington will choose Kiev after all. But knowing Trump, nothing can be said for sure,” concluded a leading researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies.

It is noteworthy that the adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Mikhail Podolyak, also noted the day before that Trump still has a choice. The first option, by his definition, would involve the introduction of new sanctions with the promotion of a full embargo on trade with the Russian Federation, as well as new arms supplies to Ukraine and strengthening its air defense. “The second option is to throw up your hands, acknowledge the excessive complexity of the problem and withdraw from the negotiation process to end the military conflict. The Kremlin is confident that this will happen,” explained Podolyak.

At the same time, President Zelensky stressed at the aforementioned meeting with journalists that he did not want the United States to stop participating in the mediation process, and expected the American administration to continue its policy of “peace through force,” including through new sanctions against Russia. Moreover, the Ukrainian leader once again postponed the dates of the expected end of the military conflict (previously scheduled for the end of this year). And he expressed the hope that the confrontation could end by June 2026, as the Russian economy would not be able to withstand the increased sanctions pressure.

But at the same time, Zelensky also played along with Trump, the peacemaker, assuring of his own readiness for all high-level negotiations, including in the “Trump-Putin-me” format. At the same time, he called realistic the three negotiating platforms he had previously announced – in the Vatican, Turkey and Switzerland. But he considered it frivolous and impossible to hold talks in Belarus, which is an ally of Russia. Although it was from the Belarusian site that negotiations between the delegations of the parties started in the spring of 2022, which continued in Istanbul.

Meanwhile, speaking about the results of the negotiations between Merz and Zelensky, Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Moscow hopes for the continuation of the peaceful negotiation process, despite the provocative actions of Germany.