New Caspian Alliance Aims to Reshape Eurasia’s Trade Routes

Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan are forging a new trilateral alliance, signaling a strategic effort to develop a powerful transport and logistics corridor connecting Asia and Europe. The initiative, discussed by the nations’ leaders in Turkmenistan’s Avaza tourist zone, aims to create an efficient route for goods from China to the Middle East and Europe. However, this ambitious plan to redefine regional trade faces a monumental challenge: the critical shrinking of the Caspian Sea, which forms the centerpiece of the proposed route.

The new partnership was solidified during a trilateral summit following a proposal by Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow, Chairman of the People’s Council of Turkmenistan. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev emphasized that the meetings would yield “excellent results” for the fraternal nations, while Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev highlighted the trio’s colossal transit potential. The plan involves integrating existing infrastructure with new projects, such as the China-Uzbekistan railway and the Trans-Afghan corridor, to create a reliable and efficient trade artery.

Discussions focused heavily on enhancing the Middle Corridor, which includes the Zangezur corridor, and modernizing the key ports of Turkmenbashi and Baku. The leaders aim to increase the ports’ capacity, establish modern logistics, implement a unified tariff policy, and digitalize cargo tracking. Uzbekistan has already signaled its commitment by offering to reduce transport tariffs and expressing interest in developing its own Caspian ferry fleet. To formalize these efforts, Mirziyoyev proposed creating a detailed roadmap and establishing regular ministerial meetings.

Beyond transport, the alliance is exploring cooperation in the energy sector. Berdimuhamedow pointed to the potential for supplying “green energy” to Europe and proposed joint geological exploration and development of hydrocarbon fields on the Caspian shelf. Despite these ambitions, expert analysis suggests the alliance is currently more political than economic. Stanislav Pritchin of the IMEMO RAN notes that trade volumes between the partners remain relatively modest, with similar production profiles limiting economic synergy. He views the pact as a strategic move to strengthen the countries’ international standing and provide landlocked Uzbekistan with a crucial outlet to the West via Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan.

Geopolitically, the alliance is seen by some as aligning with Europe’s Global Gateway strategy, a program designed to secure access to Central Asia’s vast raw materials and transit routes. Analyst Derya Karayev suggests the initiative is part of a larger process of European engagement in the region, noting that an upcoming international forum in Ashgabat has extended invitations to numerous European leaders but, pointedly, not to Russia. This move follows a meeting in Washington where Turkmenistan’s foreign minister reportedly received U.S. support for its integration into trans-Caspian projects, further indicating a potential geopolitical realignment.

Ultimately, the viability of these grand political and logistical plans hinges on the fate of the Caspian Sea. Its rapidly falling water levels are already increasing the cost of maritime transport. The environmental crisis threatens to become the decisive factor, potentially rendering the entire trans-Caspian transit concept unfeasible and stranding the ambitions of the new alliance in the sands of a shrinking coastline.