Armenia’s High-Stakes Constitutional Gambit for Regional Peace

Armenia is navigating a period of intense political turmoil, marking the 30th anniversary of its Constitution amid delicate peace negotiations with Turkey and Azerbaijan and a brewing internal crisis. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is advocating for a complete rewrite of the nation’s foundational law, a move he argues is essential for regional peace, while a new opposition movement rallies behind a jailed billionaire, demanding the government’s ouster.

Pashinyan’s push for a new constitution, slated for a draft by spring 2026 and a public referendum, is widely seen as a concession to foreign pressures. Officials have confirmed that potential changes include altering the preamble, which irks Azerbaijan with its reference to the Declaration of Independence and the unification of Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh. Observers also note that another contentious clause for Turkey, mentioning the Armenian Genocide, could be removed to smooth relations with Ankara.

The international stakes are high. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has already noted a “more flexible approach” from Yerevan regarding the so-called “Zangezur corridor,” a proposed transport route that he claims would trigger an economic revolution in the South Caucasus. However, a comprehensive peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains the primary goal. Baku has made its demands clear: a deal is contingent on Armenia amending its constitution and dissolving the OSCE Minsk Group.

While the government focuses on diplomacy, dissent is growing at home. On the eve of the Constitution’s anniversary, thousands gathered in Yerevan to support billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, who was recently jailed on charges of inciting a coup. In a message delivered by his lawyer, Karapetyan called for the nation to unite “as a single fist” to fight the current regime, which he claims has no future in Armenia.

Although the rally for Karapetyan was smaller than the large-scale protests led by Archbishop Bagrat last year, his allies insist it is just the “beginning of a long road.” Pro-government media outlets dismissed the event, suggesting the turnout of around 3,000 was bolstered by paid participants. However, political analyst Tigran Kocharyan notes that any protest has potential, given widespread public discontent. “Karapetyan’s only chance of freedom is a change of power,” Kocharyan stated, adding that the new movement is likely preparing for future parliamentary elections.

Armenia’s Constitution has been a battleground before. It was amended via referendums in 2005 and 2015, the latter of which transitioned the country to a parliamentary system and ironically paved the way for Pashinyan’s rise to power in 2018 after mass protests. In 2020, his government bypassed a referendum, citing the pandemic, to make parliamentary amendments aimed at overhauling the Constitutional Court.