Caucasus Rivals’ Marathon Talks End With No Breakthrough

In a surprise diplomatic move, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan met for their first-ever direct bilateral summit in the United Arab Emirates. The marathon five-hour meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev was aimed at breaking the deadlock over a long-awaited peace treaty, the text of which was largely agreed upon in March. Unlike previous encounters on the sidelines of international summits, this was a dedicated, face-to-face negotiation between the two nations.

Following the talks, pro-government media on both sides initially painted a positive picture, describing the negotiations as “constructive” and even “successful.” However, official statements from the foreign ministries were far more reserved, mentioning only progress on border delimitation and confidence-building measures. Despite the lengthy discussions, no significant practical results or a path to signing the peace treaty were announced, leaving the ultimate outcome ambiguous.

The mood of the delegations told a story of its own. While the leaders were pictured smiling and shaking hands at the start of the day, their body language soured by the end. President Aliyev reportedly left the negotiating room so quickly that his delegation had to rush to catch up. Prime Minister Pashinyan, in contrast, departed slowly, appearing weary as he seemingly wiped sweat from his brow, underscoring the intensity of the closed-door session.

A key stumbling block remains Azerbaijan’s set of preconditions. Baku is demanding that Yerevan amend its constitution to remove any perceived territorial claims against Azerbaijan and formally dissolve the OSCE Minsk Group, a long-standing but now largely defunct diplomatic format for the conflict. While Pashinyan has shown openness to constitutional reform, it would require a national referendum he is not guaranteed to win. Yerevan agrees to dissolve the Minsk Group, but only after a comprehensive peace treaty is signed, not before.

The summit did not occur in a vacuum. It was preceded by a flurry of diplomatic activity involving Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, a key ally of Azerbaijan, who met with both Aliyev and Pashinyan separately. Turkey has been a vocal proponent of the Zangezur corridor, a proposed transport link through Armenian territory that would connect Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan, a project that is central to the ongoing negotiations and regional geopolitical ambitions.

Analysts suggest the talks, while yielding no immediate breakthrough, were not a failure. The very fact that the leaders engaged directly for five hours without translators indicates a serious desire to address contentious issues. However, some experts speculate that Azerbaijan may be strategically delaying a final peace deal to extract further concessions, potentially related to broader pan-Turkic projects like the Middle Corridor. Others point to possible U.S. interest in the region, particularly concerning control of the Zangezur corridor, as a potential factor influencing the diplomatic calculus.