Tajikistan Poised to Join Russian-Led Economic Union

In a significant diplomatic signal, Moscow is set to commemorate Tajikistan’s Independence Day on September 9th by illuminating the city’s prominent media facades with the Tajik national flag. This gesture is widely seen as a prelude to a historic development: President Emomali Rahmon is expected to announce Tajikistan’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) during a visit by Russian leader Vladimir Putin to Dushanbe on October 10.

This potential move marks a major pivot in Dushanbe’s foreign policy. For over a decade, Tajikistan has pursued a multi-vector approach, cautiously weighing the benefits of joining the Russian-led bloc. The special attention from Moscow, which was not extended for the recent independence days of Uzbekistan or Kyrgyzstan, underscores the strategic importance Russia places on bringing its most hesitant Central Asian partner into the fold. The announcement is anticipated during a high-stakes summit in Dushanbe that will host both the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) leaders and a ‘Russia–Central Asia’ format meeting.

Recent diplomatic activities suggest a rapid warming of relations. In late May, Putin met with Rustam Emomali, the influential son of the Tajik president and speaker of the upper house of parliament. This was followed by a Russian Security Council meeting where Putin emphasized strengthening cooperation within the CIS space. These events are now viewed as laying the groundwork for Tajikistan’s integration into the EAEU.

Internally, the Tajik government has shifted its stance. After previously stating that the EAEU did not align with its national interests, an interdepartmental working group has been established to conduct a comprehensive analysis of membership, considering the current global economic and geopolitical landscape. Zavkizoda Zavki, the Minister of Economic Development and Trade, confirmed the group’s formation, noting it would present its findings after a thorough review.

The key driver behind this pivot appears to be the critical issue of labor migration. Over a million Tajiks work in Russia, and their remittances constitute up to 45% of Tajikistan’s GDP. With Russia recently tightening its migration laws, full EAEU membership offers significant advantages for Tajik citizens seeking employment, easing access and providing legal protections within the common labor market.

Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) officials have actively promoted the benefits of accession, highlighting opportunities for investment in industry, infrastructure, and energy. Nikolai Kushnarev, an EEC department director, argued that membership would provide Tajikistan with access to the Union’s vast market and integrate it into broader transnational projects like the ‘Belt and Road’ and the ‘Eurasian Agroexpress’.

However, the decision is not without its risks and internal debate. Concerns persist within Tajikistan over a potential loss of economic and even political sovereignty. Furthermore, there are fears that deeper integration with Moscow could strain relations with China, which stands as Tajikistan’s largest creditor and a key economic partner. These factors explain the government’s long-standing cautious approach.

A more sensitive, unofficial narrative is also circulating in Dushanbe. According to this view, Moscow’s support for Tajikistan’s EAEU bid could be tied to an implicit Russian endorsement for a stable political succession, potentially involving President Rahmon’s son, Rustam Emomali, adding a complex layer of political maneuvering to the economic calculus.