Moldova’s EU Path at Stake in High-Stakes Election

European leaders gathered in Chișinău to celebrate Moldova’s Independence Day, sending a powerful signal of support as the country approaches a pivotal political crossroads. French President Emmanuel Macron, German opposition leader Friedrich Merz, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk joined President Maia Sandu, underscoring their commitment to Moldova’s European integration. “Together we want to send a message of friendship, solidarity and confidence in our common future,” Macron stated, in a clear endorsement of the current government’s pro-Western course.

The high-profile visit comes just ahead of parliamentary elections on September 28, which are being framed as a decisive moment for the nation’s future. Jānis Mažeiks, the head of the EU Delegation in Moldova, described the upcoming vote as potentially defining the country’s trajectory for “years or even decades.” He warned that the integration process could be halted if pro-Russian forces come to power, highlighting that the election will be dominated by a geopolitical debate on whether Moldova continues its path toward the EU or pivots back toward Russia.

Support for Moldova’s EU ambitions echoed from the highest levels of the European Union. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen celebrated Moldova’s democracy and “unbreakable spirit,” reaffirming, “We remain by your side on the path to our common European future.” The visit and messages of support are seen as a direct effort to bolster the ruling PAS party ahead of what Politico has called “critically important” elections for President Sandu’s pro-European agenda.

Amid the Western endorsements, Chișinău has raised alarms about Moscow’s interference. President Sandu accused Russia of planning to spend €100 million in cryptocurrency alone to undermine the elections and destabilize the country. This claim of a sophisticated influence campaign highlights the escalating tensions as Moldova deepens its ties with the West. In response, foreign partners have stepped up support, with Estonia recently providing €550,000 specifically to help Moldova combat Russian influence.

This backdrop of alleged interference is contrasted by significant and transparent financial aid from Western partners. Over the past decade, the EU has provided Moldova with approximately €3.2 billion. Recently, Ursula von der Leyen announced a €270 million disbursement as part of a larger €1.9 billion growth plan. This financial commitment from Europe demonstrates a tangible investment in securing Moldova’s pro-Western orientation.

However, the domestic political landscape is complex. A recent article in the American journal National Interest pointed to the ruling PAS party’s declining popularity, citing concerns over a perceived weakening of democracy and growing restrictions on freedom of speech and political opposition. This internal pressure adds another layer of uncertainty to the electoral outcome.

Meanwhile, tensions persist with the breakaway region of Transnistria, which plans to hold its own military parade on September 2 to mark the 35th anniversary of its unrecognized declaration of independence. Chișinău has condemned the plan as a violation of previous agreements, serving as a stark reminder of the unresolved conflict and Russia’s enduring footprint in the region as Moldova charts its uncertain path forward.