Pashinyan’s ‘Fourth Republic’ Plan Divides Armenia on Independence Day

As Armenia celebrated its 34th Independence Day on September 21, the national holiday was overshadowed by a divisive announcement from Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. On the eve of the celebrations, Pashinyan declared his party’s intent to establish a ‘Fourth Republic,’ a move signaling a radical pivot in the nation’s foreign policy and identity that has drawn sharp condemnation from his political opponents.

Pashinyan’s vision is centered on the concept of a ‘Real Armenia,’ which he positions against a ‘historical Armenia’ defined by past conflicts. This new republic would aim to normalize relations with neighbors, primarily Turkey and Azerbaijan, and actively pursue closer integration with the European Union. To achieve this, Pashinyan’s ‘Civil Contract’ party plans to seek a renewed mandate in the 2026 parliamentary elections, after which it would initiate a constitutional referendum to formalize these profound changes.

The announcement coincided with congratulatory messages to Yerevan from global leaders. Russian President Vladimir Putin noted the ‘good traditions of friendship and mutual respect,’ while Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko urged the strengthening of ‘cooperation and partnership.’ The U.S. President also affirmed the ‘unbreakable friendship’ between the two nations, expressing support for Armenia’s vision as a ‘Crossroads of Peace.’ Meanwhile, Pashinyan described relations with Russia as being in a state of ‘transformation’ but predicted they would ultimately emerge stronger.

However, the proposal was met with fierce resistance from former Armenian presidents, who decried it as a threat to national sovereignty. Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan, the country’s second and third presidents, issued strong rebukes. Sargsyan accused the current government of attempting to ‘erase our memory, distort history, and deny the past,’ while Kocharyan warned that ‘the future of our independence depends on the determination of each of us.’

Political analyst Alexander Iskandaryan, director of the Caucasus Institute, suggested that the ‘Fourth Republic’ rhetoric is largely a pre-election strategy to discredit previous administrations. He believes the primary goal is likely a constitutional amendment to remove the preamble’s reference to the unification of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, a clause that has long been an irritant for Azerbaijan. This change, Iskandaryan argues, is aimed more at appeasing Baku than at a genuine ideological rebirth of the Armenian state.