Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan Revive EU Gas Pipeline Talks

The leaders of Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan have convened in Baku for high-stakes negotiations centered on the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline, a strategic project aimed at delivering Turkmen gas to Europe and reducing the continent’s reliance on Russian energy. Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, Chairman of the People’s Council of Turkmenistan, arrived for a two-day visit at the invitation of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, signaling a renewed push to connect Turkmenistan’s vast gas reserves to Azerbaijan’s Southern Gas Corridor (SGC), thereby bypassing both Russia and Iran.

The meeting follows a flurry of diplomatic activity between Baku and Brussels. President Aliyev’s recent discussions with top EU and German officials have underscored Europe’s urgent search for alternative energy sources. The EU is looking to secure an additional 14 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas, a volume that Azerbaijan, which currently supplies about 13 bcm, cannot meet alone. The focus is now on Ashgabat to provide the political green light necessary to secure financing for the ambitious subsea pipeline.

While Azerbaijan plans to increase its own exports by nearly 8 bcm by 2030, this still falls short of Europe’s total demand. Fulfilling the EU’s request hinges on integrating Turkmen gas, which would require a significant expansion of the SGC’s capacity from 10 to 20 bcm annually. President Aliyev has previously criticized the EU for delays in investing in this expansion, citing uncertainty over long-term purchase contracts as Europe pursues its green energy transition.

The Trans-Caspian project, a topic of discussion for years, has been hampered by significant obstacles, including a funding deficit estimated at $5 billion and the absence of guaranteed, long-term contracts from European buyers. Turkmenistan has consistently maintained that it wishes to be the direct seller of its gas, rather than simply a source for transit. Despite these challenges, Ashgabat has previously expressed its readiness to engage with European partners on the project, a stance reaffirmed in recent diplomatic contacts.

However, analysts do not expect the signing of definitive agreements during this visit. Berdimuhamedov, while holding immense influence as the nation’s leader, does not possess the official authority to sign such strategic documents. His approval is seen as a crucial political prerequisite for any tangible progress. The talks must also navigate past disagreements, including Turkmen concerns that Azerbaijan previously profited unfairly from gas swap deals involving Iran, a claim Baku has denied, stating it fulfilled all contractual obligations.

Adding a new layer of intrigue to the visit is the official presence of Berdimuhamedov’s daughter, Oguljahan Atabayeva, accompanying him on an international trip for the first time. Her public debut and meeting with Leyla Aliyeva, vice-president of the Heydar Aliyev Foundation, is being closely watched by observers as a potential sign of her growing role in state affairs and a glimpse into the country’s future political landscape.