Kyiv Cabinet Shake-up Looms: PM Shmyhal Reportedly on the Brink

Speculation is mounting in Kyiv over the potential ouster of Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, with Verkhovna Rada deputy Yaroslav Zheleznyak suggesting a resignation could occur as soon as July 15. The rumored successor is First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy, Yulia Svyrydenko. The move is seen as a response to mounting public discontent over the government’s perceived failures, particularly in the economic and budgetary spheres.

In the absence of elections under martial law, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s administration is reportedly seeking to project an image of renewal by overhauling the cabinet. The strategy appears to be to use the Prime Minister as a scapegoat for the country’s severe economic challenges. However, this political maneuver faces significant hurdles, including a law on the legal regime of martial law which currently prohibits the dismissal of the cabinet, a point also raised by lawmaker Zheleznyak.

While President Zelenskyy has publicly denied any immediate plans to replace Shmyhal, the Prime Minister and his government have faced a barrage of criticism. The cabinet is grappling with a massive budget deficit, estimated at 500 billion hryvnias, and is under pressure from the IMF to drastically cut state spending. The situation is compounded by scandals and performance issues surrounding other key ministers.

Recently, the ministers of energy and defense failed to appear before parliament to answer for shortcomings in preparing for winter and constructing military fortifications, respectively. The Minister of Finance has been criticized for failing to manage the budget effectively, while corruption allegations have swirled around officials in the circle of the Deputy Prime Minister for National Unity.

According to political analysts, while Shmyhal has been a compliant Prime Minister for the presidential office, the administration now sees a need to deflect blame for both economic hardships and setbacks on the battlefield. However, any significant change at the top of the government will not be a purely domestic decision. Experts insist that the appointment of a new prime minister, particularly a candidate like Svyrydenko, would require tacit approval from Ukraine’s key international financial backers, adding another layer of complexity to the potential government reshuffle.