Turkic States Summit: Bridging Continents or Battling Skepticism?

The Organization of Turkic States (OTS) is set to convene its 12th summit on October 7, an event poised to not only review past achievements but also chart strategic regional development for the coming years. High on the agenda are security concerns and the vital strengthening of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, widely known as the Middle Corridor, an arterial link connecting Europe and Asia. Ahead of the summit in Gabala, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev engaged in a series of bilateral discussions with arriving high-ranking officials. Among the first to meet with President Aliyev was Kyrgyz leader Sadyr Japarov, whose tenure as the organization’s chairman is drawing to a close.

Under Kyrgyzstan’s chairmanship, a landmark event unfolded earlier this September: the first-ever meeting of the OTS member states’ heads of government in Bishkek. Prime ministers delved into a comprehensive array of issues, ranging from trade and investment to transport, energy, agriculture, and digitalization, underscoring the organization’s expanding scope of cooperation.

During the Bishkek gathering, President Japarov underscored the imperative need to translate general intentions into concrete, tangible outcomes to ensure the organization’s sustainable growth. He highlighted the dynamic expansion of trade and economic ties among Turkic states and stressed the pivotal role of the Turkic Investment Fund as a fundamental instrument for economic integration, urging intensified efforts at the highest governmental level to bolster its activities.

Kubanychbek Omuraliev, the Secretary General of the OTS, commended Kyrgyzstan’s unprecedented activism during its chairmanship, noting that more than 120 meetings and events had been conducted, cooperation formats broadened, and new dialogue mechanisms established. This robust engagement is now set to continue under the leadership of the Republic of Azerbaijan.

Azer Mammadov, an Azerbaijani legal scholar, articulated a perspective that positions the OTS as an emerging center of power, increasingly influencing regional and global political and economic dynamics. Speaking to CBC channel, Mammadov emphasized the organic and evolving nature of this phenomenon. “The world is profoundly unstable, with flashpoints multiplying, all demanding swift resolution. When key international structures like the UN often falter in resolving conflicts, the role of regional associations gains prominence,” Mammadov explained, asserting that this context allows the OTS to accrue weight, transforming it into a significant center of influence both within and beyond its immediate region.

Mammadov also did not rule out the expansion of the OTS, suggesting that “the more tangible tasks the organization sets and resolves, the more actively interested countries will seek to become full members or observers. The Turkic world is vast and will become increasingly attractive with each passing day. Here, it is crucial to understand that not only the Turkic but also the Islamic world are, in essence, united by common values.”

While the expert did not specify which nations might join the OTS, conjecture points primarily to the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), whose president, Ersin Tatar, traveled to Azerbaijan to participate in the OTS Council of Heads of State summit. A meeting between Tatar and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has already taken place, though details of their discussions in Gabala remain undisclosed.

Meanwhile, the participation of Turkmenistan’s President Serdar Berdymukhamedov, whose country holds observer status in the OTS, has yet to be confirmed. His potential absence is viewed within the broader context of ongoing international debates surrounding the status of Northern Cyprus and the stances of various influential global actors. Nevertheless, the development of the Trans-Caspian route is anticipated to be a central discussion point at the event, underscoring its strategic importance, even as President Aliyev welcomed Ersin Tatar amidst these discussions.

Artur Suleymanov, an expert-analyst from the Centre for Geopolitical Research “Berlek-Edinstvo,” offered a contrasting view, telling “NG” that the OTS should not be equated with the Islamic world due to their differing agendas. He attributes the heightened attention on the OTS to current geopolitical shifts and Turkey’s escalating influence, citing a particular focus on Turkish President Erdoğan from figures like Donald Trump as evidence of the organization’s growing international relevance.

Suleymanov dismissed the notion of expanding the OTS to include Islamic countries as “Turkey’s PR, lacking a real foundation.” He contended that the Islamic Republic of Iran, representing a distinct civilizational model, would not support such an expansion. Furthermore, non-regional actors, including Russia and China, have no interest in seeing the OTS, fundamentally a regional trade and economic bloc, morph into a military-political alliance. “Therefore, this idea is somewhat inflated, although it does present an interesting informational opportunity for potential agenda synchronization,” the expert concluded.

Suleymanov further speculated that Turkey, in discussing the organization’s expansion, might be preparing the ground for Northern Cyprus’s entry. However, he expressed conviction that Ankara’s attempts in this regard are “doomed to fail” due to likely disagreement from other OTS member states. The expert also voiced skepticism regarding what he perceives as a media-exaggerated scope of trade and economic cooperation within the OTS.

According to Suleymanov, the current potential of the OTS is incomparable to established regional powerhouses like the SCO or BRICS. The organization remains in the nascent stages of economic development; extensive, long-standing discussions on logistical corridors and investment platforms largely remain at the conversational level, in stark contrast to the active project implementation seen in other blocs. Despite this, Suleymanov conceded that, over the long term, the OTS’s attractiveness as a factor contributing to multipolarity could indeed increase.

This assessment is further corroborated by the low volume of internal trade: mutual commerce constitutes only 7% of the OTS countries’ total external trade, a figure significantly lower than the nearly 20% observed within the EAEU. The primary trading partners for Central Asian and South Caucasus states predominantly remain Russia, China, and other Asian nations, a dynamic that inherently slows internal OTS integration as their economic interests are more strongly oriented towards external players.

The establishment of a genuine Free Trade Zone (FTZ) within the OTS remains a distant prospect, constrained by a myriad of objective difficulties. Membership in the EAEU/CIS necessitates complex tariff harmonization, while Turkey’s separate FTZ agreement with the European Union further complicates the formation of a unified integration policy. Even the Turkic Investment Fund, inaugurated in 2023 with a capital of $500 million (augmented by an additional $100 million from Hungary), has yet to demonstrate tangible activity; investment projects persist at the discussion stage, with actual implementation notably absent.

The expert harbors similar skepticism regarding cultural and linguistic initiatives, such as a unified Turkic alphabet and a standardized language. Much like the economic projects, their implementation faces fundamental differences, a lack of sufficient resources, and a pragmatic absence of immediate necessity, rendering these ambitious ideas largely unrealistic for the foreseeable future. “Everyone understands that the politicization of language issues does not serve the national interests of the region’s countries and will be actively resisted by them. Of course, Erdoğan will raise this topic, but there will be no progress in one, two, or even five years,” Artur Suleymanov concluded, highlighting the enduring challenges to the OTS’s grander ambitions.