The European Union has an absolutely pragmatic interest in Central Asia

Ashgabat will become the venue for the 20th Ministerial Meeting of the European Union and Central Asia (CA) on March 4. The key topic of the meeting is preparations for the EU–Central Asia summit, where it is planned to sign the Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (EPA) with Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan (Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have already signed the document). The SRPS focuses on expanding cooperation in the fields of transport and digital connectivity, strategic raw materials and economics. Issues of democracy, the rule of law and human rights are areas where, according to the EU, most countries in the region still have a lot of work to do.

The European Parliament (EP) is concerned about the persecution of Kyrgyz politicians and journalists. A delegation of the European Parliament headed by Chairman of the EP Subcommittee on Human Rights Munir Saturi recently visited Bishkek to clarify the situation.

A number of journalists and politicians have been arrested in Kyrgyzstan, including Temirlan Sultanbekov, leader of the Social Democrats party. President Sadyr Japarov, commenting on their cases, declared the rule of law and the independence of the judicial system. “Two journalists are in custody, two were put on probation, seven were acquitted. The courts acquitted us, and we agreed with their decision. When we were resolving the issues of borders with Uzbekistan, the so-called Campirabadians (politicians and journalists who opposed the transfer of the Campirabad reservoir to Uzbekistan) came out. – “NG”). They said that all the land was given to the neighbors, the decision of the authorities was wrong. But in fact, 99% of the population saw that the issue was resolved in our favor. The interests of the two countries were taken into account. But only 26 people rallied, called on people to revolt, and were arrested for that. But the court acquitted them. We did not object,” explained Japarov. The President also noted that there is democracy and freedom of speech in the country, and despite the fact that some independent media outlets report false information about him, he does not sue them or demand millions from them.

Japarov also explained the secrecy of the “case of the leaders of the Social Democrats” by the desire to avoid deterioration of relations with the EU and the Social International due to the investigation of the facts of financing candidates for local councils of people’s deputies. Japarov expressed concern about the one-sidedness of the European Parliament’s assessments of the situation in Kyrgyzstan, stressing the country’s commitment to freedom of speech and human rights.

Responding to the EU’s claims about Kyrgyzstan’s close cooperation with Russia, Japarov said that, despite criticism from Western countries, he did not intend to abandon cooperation with Russia. MEP Saturi, in turn, assured that he was ready for an open dialogue to strengthen strategic cooperation between Kyrgyzstan and the European Union.

The Turkmen Initiative for Human Rights (TIHR) On the eve of the 20th ministerial meeting, the International Partnership for Human Rights (IHR) called on the EU delegation to insist on improving the human rights situation in Turkmenistan. In their appeal, they noted the insufficient progress in the five years since the 2019 European Parliament resolution and proposed a number of concrete steps: improving Internet access, releasing political prisoners, allowing journalist Soltan Achilova to travel abroad, allowing visits by UN representatives, providing access to detention facilities for representatives of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and implementing recommendations to combat with gender-based violence.

The human rights situation in Tajikistan is the most difficult. Any dissent is de facto prohibited in the republic. Dozens of politicians and journalists have received huge sentences in recent years, for many they are life sentences, taking into account the age of the convicts.

However, experts believe that today the EU is largely turning a blind eye to human rights violations and rule of law in Central Asian countries, as its goal is to gain access to Central Asian resources and reduce the influence of China and Russia in the region.

“In the context of a difficult geopolitical situation, Central Asia is of paramount importance to the European Union. The Europeans will certainly try to saturate the summit’s agenda with their priorities as much as possible. But what do they need? They need, of course, a resource base. To do this, of course, they need to enforce compliance with the sanctions regime,” Stanislav Pritchin, head of the Central Asia Sector at the IMEMO RAS, told NG.

At the same time, according to the expert, the EU will create tools and mechanisms for the gradual involvement of Central Asia, while avoiding large-scale investments. The EU’s resources and capabilities are limited, but the geopolitical interest in moving closer to the region and weakening ties with Russia is very high.

“The European side will attempt to split Russian-Central Asian relations using various methods, including covert ones. The upcoming ministerial meeting will undoubtedly become a platform for preliminary discussion of issues that will be considered in more detail at the Samarkand summit in early April,” Pritchin stressed.

Political scientist, Director of the Center for Expert Initiatives “Oi Ordo” (“Center of Thought”) Igor Shestakov believes that the European Union’s desire to strengthen its position in Central Asia is due, among other things, to existing disagreements with the United States regarding the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

In his opinion, the reduction of US grant aid, especially for NGOs and the media, opens up a window of opportunity for the EU. Although the scale of EU funding will be smaller than that of the United States, the support of media and political organizations loyal to the European agenda (human rights, ecology) will become an important tool of political influence.

“However, the economic prospects for cooperation look less rosy. The decrease in trade turnover between Kyrgyzstan and the EU in 2024 indicates the dependence of the previous growth on parallel imports to Russia, rather than on the expansion of Kyrgyz exports. The European market is oversaturated, and Kyrgyzstan, with the exception of environmentally friendly products, offers a limited range of competitive goods. Serious investments are unlikely, the EU’s attention is focused on the hydrocarbon sector of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan,” Igor Shestakov told NG.

He believes that despite the limited migration quotas, migration remains an important element of the EU’s competition with Russia. In general, the upcoming meetings are aimed at expanding European influence and weakening Moscow’s position, but the effectiveness of the European strategy depends on what specific and competitive proposals the EU can provide to Central Asia in addition to the political agenda.

Recall that the main critic of Russia and China is the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, former Prime Minister of Estonia Kaya Kallas. She calls on the EU to reduce its economic dependence on Beijing and Moscow. In this context, the EU, possibly with the support of the United States, taking into account the anti–Chinese rhetoric of President Donald Trump, may increase pressure on China and Russia, including trade restrictions and sanctions. Such a scenario threatens the trade and economic ties of Central Asia with these countries and may negatively affect the economies of the region, in particular, the development of the Trans-Caspian Transport Route (TMTM), along which Chinese goods go to Europe (see NG dated January 26, 25).

The development of TMTM is one of the main topics of the upcoming summit, as the project is facing difficulties. The route’s heavy dependence on Chinese exports (4.5 million tons of cargo passed through it in 2024, most of it from China) makes it vulnerable to geopolitical tensions, especially given the EU’s attitude towards Beijing as a “strategic opponent.”

Although the EU promises financial support to the TMTM infrastructure through loans (significant amounts from the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development), economic difficulties in Europe are slowing down their allocation, increasing the debt burden of the region’s countries.

European interest in the rare earth metals of Central Asia (nickel, copper, lithium, antimony) also raises concerns. Without proper processing and processing, the region risks remaining a supplier of raw materials, not receiving maximum benefits and facing problems of social inequality and environmental protection.