Blue Gold: Kyrgyzstan to Charge Neighbors for Water

A fundamental shift is underway in Central Asia’s most critical resource-sharing arrangement, as Kyrgyzstan prepares to commercialize its vast water supplies. With a new Water Code set to take effect on January 1, 2026, Bishkek will begin charging all domestic and foreign users for water, effectively turning it into a commodity on par with oil and gas. This move dismantles the Soviet-era principle of exchanging water for energy and is poised to dominate discussions during an upcoming visit by Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev to Bishkek, signaling a potential overhaul of regional relations.

For decades, the distribution of water from the region’s great transboundary rivers has been a persistent source of tension. In the 1990s, the leaders of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan explored creating a water-energy consortium for equitable distribution, but an agreement was never reached. A 1998 intergovernmental deal on the Naryn-Syr Darya river basin, later joined by Tajikistan, provided a framework but failed to resolve core issues, as each nation’s laws continued to assert state ownership over water resources. The old barter system, where upstream countries released water in summer in exchange for energy in winter, began to break down.

Despite the impending changes, a temporary arrangement remains in place. On September 7, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan signed a protocol to regulate the water and energy balance until 2026. The agreement reaffirms the commitment for water releases from Kyrgyzstan’s Toktogul reservoir in exchange for electricity supplies from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. “Kazakhstan is fulfilling its obligations and expects a similar approach from its partners. This is the foundation of stability for the energy systems and water supply of the entire region,” stated Kazakh Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov, highlighting the cooperative basis that will soon be challenged.

Kyrgyzstan’s decision stems from a long-held belief that the existing system is imbalanced. As an upstream nation, it feels it has not been adequately compensated for the water it supplies to its downstream neighbors. The country uses only about 20% of its total water runoff, with the rest flowing into Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, whose agricultural and industrial sectors are critically dependent on it. Experts also point to inefficient water use in downstream countries and new challenges, such as a massive canal project in Afghanistan that will draw significant volumes from the Amu Darya river, further straining regional supplies.

According to Igor Shestakov, director of the ‘Oi Ordo’ expert initiative center, the commodification of water is an “explosive” development that could escalate tensions. While Central Asia has so far avoided large-scale water conflicts, Kyrgyzstan’s move to legally treat water as a sellable good creates a high-stakes scenario. Shestakov argues that reaching a new consensus is essential for regional stability and integration. “The water issue will be at the heart of any potential union. Otherwise, Central Asian integration will not happen,” he stressed, underscoring its foundational importance.

High-level diplomacy is already intensifying around the issue. A recent visit by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to Bishkek heavily featured water security on the agenda, and the upcoming summit with Uzbekistan’s president is expected to do the same. The strategic importance of the issue is also drawing global attention. While the European Union is just beginning to engage with the region on water, powers like Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom have long been active. “External partners realize that cooperation on water use will play a decisive role in their strategic presence,” Shestakov noted, adding that control over water is becoming a key tool for influence in the globally significant region.

This strategic shift also has profound domestic implications for Kyrgyzstan, which is approaching parliamentary and presidential elections. Candidates will inevitably face questions from voters about how profitably the country is managing its most valuable natural resource. As a result, Kyrgyzstan’s water strategy is transforming from a purely economic and environmental issue into a matter of sharp political debate, with the potential to shape the nation’s future leadership and its role in Central Asia.