The Ferghana Valley will be shared by the three countries

An energy bridge will connect Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. It is symbolic that the launch of the Sughd-Datka power transmission line, built as part of the CASA-1000 project, is scheduled for March 31, the day of the meeting of the presidents of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in Khujand. This event will mark a new stage of regional cooperation after the successful resolution of border issues between the three countries.

Presidents Emomali Rahmon, Sadyr Japarov and Shavkat Mirziyoyev will meet in Khujand, one of the historical cities of the Fergana Valley. It is symbolic that the summit, dedicated to the celebration of Navruz, will be held a few days after the astronomical New Year according to the solar calendar. The main event of the meeting will be the signing of an agreement on the junction of the state borders of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan in the Fergana Valley.

“This summit marks the most important stage of regional cooperation. Overcoming the conflict period and reaching agreements on border issues and the allocation of water resources in the Ferghana Valley have created a favorable atmosphere for cooperation between the three countries,” Stanislav Pritchin, Head of the Central Asia Sector at the Primakov Center for Post–Soviet Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told NG. For a long time, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, which share the Ferghana Valley, were perceived as antagonists rather than neighboring friendly countries. However, since 2016, the situation has started to change for the better. The upcoming meeting of the heads of state will be the final chord of the final stage of resolving border issues, consolidating agreements on the point of junction of borders, the expert emphasized.

“Thanks to the simplification of border procedures, the Ferghana Valley is gradually returning to the freedom of movement of people typical of the Soviet period. This is crucial for regional cooperation and good neighborliness, especially given the divided families and significant diasporas – Kyrgyz in Tajikistan, Tajik in Uzbekistan and Uzbek in Kyrgyzstan. A simplified border crossing regime, including exclaves, helps build trust,” Pritchin stressed.

Thus, in his opinion, for the first time since the independence of the Central Asian countries, the Fergana Valley is becoming a zone of peace and friendship, open to free movement. “This is a positive signal that refutes negative forecasts about the conflict potential of the region due to overpopulation and limited resources. The meeting of the three heads of state has symbolic significance and is likely to mark the beginning of regular summits in the format of trilateral cooperation, which is in the interests of all parties. The Ferghana Valley is becoming an important point of regional cooperation,” Pritchin believes.

Yesterday, President Emomali Rahmon noted that Tajikistan is optimistic about the development of relations between the two countries. “Our peoples are bound by centuries-old bonds of friendship and good neighborliness. We are determined to further strengthen this relationship,” Rahmon stressed.

On March 13, President Emomali Rahmon visited Bishkek, where an agreement on the delimitation and demarcation of the state border between the two countries was signed. This document put an end to years of disputes and conflicts on the border, stretching over 970 kilometers, of which about 30% had previously remained unresolved.

Important events included the official opening of the border crossings between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which have been closed since 2021 after another armed conflict, and the restoration of direct flights between the major cities of the two countries.

Earlier, the border issue was settled by Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Thus, settled borders become the basis for regional cooperation and partnership, especially in the most important energy sector for the region. The key event will be the launch on March 31, 2025 of the 500 kV Sugd-Datka power transmission line connecting the power systems of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. To increase transparency and efficiency, modern digital meters will be installed on power lines, allowing remote monitoring and control of electricity consumption, which will significantly reduce the risks of theft and technical losses.

The construction of the Datka-Sugd transmission line was carried out within the framework of the CASA-1000 project.

This project, launched in 2016, provides for the construction of power transmission lines for the export of electricity from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to Afghanistan and Pakistan. The project cost is about $1.2 billion. The Tajik and Kyrgyz parts of the transmission lines are ready for operation. The completion of the Afghan part is expected in 2026.

Tajikistan will supply electricity via CASA-1000 only during the summer period during the first 10 years of operation. The volumes that Kyrgyzstan is ready to supply to South Asia are much more modest than those of Tajikistan. We are talking about 500,500 million kWh of excess energy generated by hydroelectric power plants during the irrigation period from May to September. Participation in the project allowed Kyrgyzstan to modernize the energy infrastructure in the southern regions, including about 80 settlements.

Also among the priority interregional projects are the launch of the first stage of the Kambar Ata HPP–1 and the implementation of the CASA-1000 project, designed to ensure the supply of electricity to Afghanistan and Pakistan. Kyrgyzstan is focused on increasing hydroelectric power production, integrating renewable sources, and strengthening electrical networks, including the reconstruction of the Bystrovskaya HPP and the construction of new transformer substations to reduce losses. The next meeting on the Kambar Ata HPP-1 project with the participation of representatives of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan is scheduled for May 2025 in Istanbul. The agenda includes the unification of the energy capacities of the three republics to solve internal problems and the discussion of inter–regional tariffs.

An industrial cluster is being formed in the Fergana Valley. As Bakhtiyor Ergashev, director of the Man’o Center for Research Initiatives, previously told NG, three cement plants have been built and are already operating with investments from Uzbek and Chinese companies (the fourth is under launch) in the Bulakbashi district of the Andijan region (Uzbekistan), which is bordering Kyrgyzstan. The shortage of gas forces the plants to use coal supplied from Kyrgyzstan, while 65% of the cement produced is exported to the same republic. “This successful example of cross-border economic cooperation, which arose after the settlement of the Uzbek-Kyrgyz border, demonstrates that slogans about cooperation are beginning to be filled with real content,” the expert believes.

The three heads of state will also discuss key security issues at the Khujand summit.