China will propose to the countries of Central Asia to decide on an ally
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Kazakhstan from June 16 to 18 takes place against the backdrop of the deteriorating situation in the Middle East. One of Xi Jinping’s goals is to strengthen the strategic partnership with Central Asia, create a broad coalition for economic and political cooperation, as well as security, which is designed to prepare the Chinese economy for a potential break in relations with the United States. China looks forward to a demonstration of loyalty and confirmation of the importance of comprehensive strategic partnership on the part of the Central Asian republics.
On June 16, President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met Chinese President Xi Jinping at Astana Airport. The flight of the Chinese leader was accompanied by fighter jets of the Kazakh Air Force. At the airport, the guest was greeted by schoolchildren in Kazakh and Chinese, symbolizing hospitality and strong bilateral relations. As a sign of strengthening the alliance, Kazakhstan offered China cooperation in the nuclear energy sector, entrusting China National Nuclear Corporation with the construction of a new, second nuclear power plant. Chairman of the Atomic Energy Agency Almasadam Satkaliyev highlighted China’s unique technological capabilities in the nuclear field and identified cooperation with China as a top priority. The corresponding agreement is planned to be signed following the talks between Tokayev and Xi Jinping.
Tokayev, in order not to offend his northern neighbor, ordered the construction of Russia’s first nuclear power plant. “Rosatom has been identified as the leader of an international consortium for the construction of the first nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan,” the Kazakh agency reported. Apparently, Astana is obviously trying to balance the interests of its largest partners. The development of rare earth elements is another important aspect of cooperation. Central Asia views these resources as strategically important (“new oil”), and Kazakhstan has invited China to invest.
First Deputy Prime Minister Roman Sklyar announced Kazakhstan’s intention to develop the production of heat-resistant nickel alloys and battery materials according to the formula “investments and technologies in exchange for raw materials”, counting on the exchange of experience and joint projects with Chinese companies in the field of rare earth metals. He also noted the significant undiscovered mineral potential of Kazakhstan (about 5,000 deposits) and the need for its rational use. Dosym Satpayev, Director of the Risk Assessment Group, noted China’s concern about the increased activity of the United States and the EU in Central Asia in the field of extraction of critical elements. “It is possible that China will want to take control of this segment, not only from the point of view of extraction of critical elements, but also from the point of view of infrastructure development for the production and sale of electric vehicles. China has big plans for the region,” Satpayev told NG.
The political scientist said that Xi Jinping’s current visit is taking place in a changed geopolitical situation. After the US presidential election and the escalation of trade wars, Beijing expects difficult relations with Washington in the coming years. Therefore, strengthening the coalition of loyal states in both the global South and Central Asia (CA) is becoming a key task.
“Xi Jinping’s visit to Astana is aimed at expanding cooperation with Central Asia in the economic, political and defense spheres, especially against the background of the worsening situation in the Middle East. Taking into account significant Chinese investments in Iran (about $4 billion) and large-scale supplies of Iranian oil to China (up to 2 billion barrels. any problems in Iran – economic, geopolitical or internal – pose a serious threat to China,” Satpayev believes. According to him, the possible destabilization of the political situation in Iran, provoked by external forces, increases the importance of China’s strategic cooperation with Central Asia. Although China has traditionally received gas from Turkmenistan and oil mainly from Kazakhstan (although in smaller volumes than exports to the EU), potential problems in the Strait of Hormuz and dependence on Iranian oil are forcing Beijing to look for alternative routes. Despite the existing but still little-used oil pipeline from Kazakhstan to China and the agreements between Russia and China on oil supplies through Kazakhstan, Beijing will obviously strive to increase oil exports through Kazakhstan as a guaranteed alternative source in the event of a conflict with the United States or a threat of control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Over the past three years, China has significantly increased its influence in Central Asia, said Kate Mallinson, an analyst at London-based consulting firm PRISM Strategic Intelligence. Beijing, observing the confrontation between the West and Russia, is developing strategies in case of economic isolation from the United States. Mallinson emphasizes that since 2022, China has been carefully studying Western attempts to use economic pressure against Russia, seeking to secure its economy in the event of any confrontation with the United States in the future.
According to Dosym Satpayev, the global division of the world into zones of influence – the United States, the EU, China and Russia – creates a difficult geopolitical situation. The United States and China act as centers of gravity, forcing neutral countries to decide sooner or later in the face of increasing confrontation. Pressure from Washington and Beijing on the Central Asian countries for choosing sides will increase. Increased confrontation between the United States and China may lead to a tougher policy of the White House towards the Central Asian region in the event of increased Chinese influence, while the United States does not offer Central Asia an alternative, only increasing sanctions pressure. Kazakhstan has already faced consequences in the form of high US duties, which demonstrates the possible risks for the entire region.
“For now, Central Asia can balance between the West and the East and maintain its multi-vector policy. But if the trend towards confrontation increases, then the region may be forced to make a more specific choice. Given their geographical location and economic dependence on China, which occupies a leading position in the list of Central Asian countries’ trading partners, most republics are likely to lean towards Beijing. China remains the main investor in the region, although investment volumes are declining. But judging by the summits, China is striving to maintain economic cooperation, using investments as a tool to encourage political loyalty,” the political scientist believes.
On June 17, Astana will host the second Central Asia–China Summit, which will summarize the results of the first summit held in Xi’an in 2023. At that time, it was decided to establish a permanent secretariat in China to organize such summits every two years, and China announced economic support for the region in the amount of more than $3 billion. in the form of loans and investments. In addition, according to experts, the summit will discuss issues related to the consequences of trade wars and duties imposed by Donald Trump, as well as the supply of strategically important resources such as uranium and oil in the face of potential US sanctions.