Belarusian Firebrand Eyes Trump’s Support to Topple Lukashenka

Following his release after five years in prison, Belarusian activist Sergei Tikhanovsky has burst back onto the political scene with radical proclamations, vowing to “break the regime.” In his first video address, he announced the formation of his own team, promising to deliver a “powerful blow to Lukashenka’s rule and its propaganda” within weeks. His uncompromising stance, however, emerges as the established exiled opposition, the United Transitional Cabinet, prepares for its own major event, the “New Belarus 2025” conference in Warsaw this August, signaling a potential rift within the anti-Lukashenka movement.

Tikhanovsky’s reappearance has electrified the diaspora. His emaciated yet defiant demeanor and his bold promise to “break this regime” at a rally in Warsaw stand in stark contrast to what some perceive as the more measured and comfortable political figures surrounding his wife, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. This contrast has sparked intense debate among analysts about the role this charismatic but uncompromising figure can play in the current political landscape.

While Tikhanovsky’s energy is palpable, experts question if his 2020-era fervor resonates with the current mood in Belarus. Political analyst Alexander Klaskovsky notes that the activist seems to be living in the past, while the country has drastically changed. “The Belarusians of 2020 believed in change,” Tikhanovsky himself observed, contrasting them with the “suppressed, frightened” people he sees now. With the path back to Belarus closed to him and the population focused on daily survival rather than protest, his ability to mobilize support within the country is seen as limited.

However, a new and unpredictable factor has entered the equation: a potential connection to Donald Trump. Tikhanovsky has claimed that Trump personally insisted on his name being included on a list for release. This potential line to the White House has reportedly caused serious alarm in Minsk. Historian Alexander Fridman suggests that while Tikhanovsky may not rally the masses in Belarus, he might successfully capture Trump’s attention.

The fear in Minsk is that Trump, known for his unconventional style, could heed Tikhanovsky’s calls and demand the release of all political prisoners from Lukashenka. This concern is substantiated by Trump’s recent public statement, where he took credit for Tikhanovsky’s freedom, marking his first public comment on Belarus in his second term. The reaction from Belarusian state media, which has preemptively declared that such appeals would not influence the “unbending” Lukashenka, reveals the regime’s anxiety over this potential high-stakes diplomatic confrontation.