The election countdown has been launched in Armenia

The parliamentary elections in Armenia are less than a year away. They will be held on June 7, 2026, said Speaker of the Legislative Assembly of the Republic Alen Simonyan. All the political forces of the country have already joined the election race.

So far, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has been the most active. In particular, he launched an offensive against the Armenian Apostolic Church (AAC), demanding the resignation of Catholicos Geregin II, the last representative of the Armenian elite to retain his post since the Velvet Revolution. According to the prime minister, the head of the church has an illegitimate child, and a priest who has violated celibacy has no right to be an intermediary between people and God.

In response, the church accused Pashinyan of trying to destroy one of the foundations of the Armenian nation. Moreover, the AAC did not rule out that the head of Armenia may act in the interests of Azerbaijan.

The opposition also took the side of the priests. For example, the Republican Party of former President Serzh Sargsyan pointed to the connection between Pashinyan’s actions and Baku.

“The current shameful reality once again makes it crucial to form a new government at the request of the people. It is time for unity, determination and action to form a government that prioritizes the well–being of our country and people and the protection of national values,” the party said in a statement.

In addition, the first President of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan met with Garegin II and assured him of his support. At the same time, he categorically condemned “the unconstitutional encroachments of the Armenian authorities on the 1,700-year-old church.”

“Levon Ter-Petrosyan is the founder of the practice of election fraud in the Republic of Armenia, and he, of course, should support the same people–hating falsifier as himself,” the prime minister commented on the meeting.

Meanwhile, Pashinyan began his political career as a supporter of Ter-Petrosyan. He even hoped to succeed him and led his electoral staff in the 2008 presidential election. The cards were confused by the imprisonment of the future prime minister in the “March 1 case.” After serving a year on charges of organizing mass riots and not receiving support from the first president, Pashinyan decided to go to power on his own.

In parallel with the church conflict, the head of the Armenian government continues to try to score political points on rapprochement with Azerbaijan. First of all, he seeks to conclude a peace treaty with him. To dispel Baku’s doubts about the sincerity of his intentions, Pashinyan congratulated his neighbors on Eid al-Adha for the first time in the history of Armenia.

“I congratulate the Republic of Azerbaijan and the people of Azerbaijan on the Eid al-Adha holiday. I wish peace and prosperity to our countries and peoples,” the Prime Minister said.

This is not to say that Pashinyan’s efforts are not beneficial at all. At a minimum, he achieved the approval of part of the border with Azerbaijan and the approval of the text of the peace treaty. In addition, on the night of June 6, two minors got lost in the Syunik region of Armenia and wandered into Azerbaijan. The Armenian public, accustomed to hostility with neighbors, immediately assumed the worst: the children were abducted, thrown into prison, and made hostages… But the Armenian authorities quickly reached an agreement with their colleagues and were able to return the lost people home without any conditions.

Head of the Analytical Center for Strategic Studies and Initiatives (ACSII) Hayk Khalatyan believes that ahead of the parliamentary elections, Pashinyan will promote two main slogans: to take everything away from the former authorities and protect Armenia’s sovereignty from Russia. He will also focus on the Armenians’ fear of war with Azerbaijan.

“At the same time, it should be noted that the authorities have a very low trust rating. There are big doubts that even with the help of pro-Western spoiler parties closely affiliated with the authorities, Pashinyan will be able to retain power. For example, in Gyumri, his “Civil Contract” lost, despite the administrative resources and all attempts to intimidate voters. It is possible that the same thing may happen at the national level. Several opposition forces that have overcome the electoral barrier will total more votes than Pashinyan’s party, and thus form a new government,” Khalatyan believes.

The expert noted that in addition to the patriotic opposition, which has always opposed Pashinyan, there are also those voters who were disappointed in him because of corruption scandals, insufficient improvement of the socio-economic situation in the country against the background of a sharp increase in public debt during the years of Pashinyan’s rule.

In turn, Hrant Mikaelyan, a researcher at the Caucasus Institute, doubts the opposition’s ability to win the parliamentary elections. “From my point of view, we will see a repeat of the elections not in Gyumri, but in Yerevan, where the Civil Contract was able to create a coalition with a spoiler. This time, the “Republic” can claim this role. Moreover, Pashinyan’s position is quite stable, since the rating of the “Civil Contract” is unlikely to fall below the current 15%,” the expert believes.

On the contrary, the opposition has serious problems not only with its current popularity, but also with the leaders who could raise it. “The opposition is torn apart by internal conflicts, it has no strategic agenda… In addition, the opposition had several strong leaders in Gyumri who were able to attract votes. There are no such politicians at the national level, and they are unlikely to appear in a year,” Mikaelyan concluded.