Central Asia Bets on Afghanistan as Iran’s Instability Grows

A high-stakes geopolitical pivot is underway in Central Asia, with regional leaders aggressively pursuing new transport corridors through Afghanistan to bypass an increasingly unstable Iran. The 17th Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) summit, held in the symbolic city of Khankendi in Azerbaijan, became the platform for this strategic realignment, bringing together leaders from Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, and several Central Asian states to transform regional challenges into economic opportunities.

For years, landlocked Central Asian nations have relied on Iran for crucial access to global sea routes. However, recent attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities have sent shockwaves across the region, casting doubt on the reliability of this vital corridor. The escalating security risks now threaten to derail ambitious transport projects, forcing leaders to seek safer, more dependable alternatives for their economic lifelines.

In this tense climate, Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has emerged as a vocal champion for a new path forward: the Trans-Afghan transport corridor. Speaking at the summit, Mirziyoyev emphasized the urgent need for alternative routes, highlighting the planned China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway as a critical project that will eventually integrate with the Trans-Afghan route, creating a massive new network connecting the wider region.

This vision is rapidly gaining traction and financial backing. Kazakhstan’s Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov confirmed his country’s intent to invest in the construction of the Turgundi-Herat section of the Trans-Afghan railway and a logistics hub in Herat. Describing Afghanistan as a “bridge between Central and South Asia,” Bektenov noted the project’s strategic value in providing access to Indian Ocean ports. While the exact figure is unconfirmed, the Afghan government previously reported a potential $500 million commitment from Astana, which also plans to lay a parallel fiber-optic cable for high-speed internet.

Russia is also a key player in this developing landscape, viewing the Trans-Afghan corridor as a potential extension of its own North-South Transport Corridor. According to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk, discussions are underway for two potential railway lines through Afghanistan. In a significant move that would streamline logistics, Overchuk revealed that the Afghan side has agreed to adopt Russia’s wider rail gauge standard for the new tracks.

The project’s success hinges on cooperation with the current Afghan government. The Taliban delegation at the summit actively called on ECO members to invest in the corridor and grant their government official recognition. This plea comes on the heels of a landmark decision by Russia, which, according to reports discussed at the summit, officially recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan on July 3, 2025. This move follows the establishment of Afghan embassies in China, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, signaling a broader regional trend toward pragmatic engagement with the Taliban regime.

Discussions at the summit revealed a wide range of collaborative efforts centered on Afghanistan. Azerbaijan’s Prime Minister Ali Asadov discussed the Lapis Lazuli Corridor, a trade route connecting Afghanistan with Turkey via Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. Meanwhile, Turkmenistan’s Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov met with the Afghan delegation to advance the transnational TAPI gas pipeline and the TAP electricity and fiber-optic lines, reinforcing that the engagement with Kabul extends across transit, energy, and digital infrastructure.

As one political analyst noted, the Khankendi summit marked a defining moment, shaping not just the economic but also the political configuration of the region. The agreements and high-level discussions have solidified the role of the South Caucasus and Central Asia as a critical global hub, demonstrating a unified resolve to navigate geopolitical turbulence by placing a newly accessible Afghanistan at the heart of their future.