Lukashenko’s Geopolitical Split: Courting Putin and Trump

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is performing a complex diplomatic balancing act, signaling a desire for engagement with Washington even as he deepens military ties with Moscow. This political maneuvering comes at a time when both Lukashenko and his chief political opponent, exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, are surprisingly vying for the attention of the same potential American leader: Donald Trump.

Following a recent meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the monastic island of Valaam, Lukashenko reaffirmed his allegiance to Moscow. He confirmed that Belarus is set to receive the advanced “Oreshnik” missile system from Russia before the end of the year, a move that highlights the tightening military integration between the two allied states and a commitment to their shared security interests.

However, in a sharp pivot, Lukashenko also made candid remarks about his relationship with the West, particularly Donald Trump. He referred to the former U.S. president as “our common friend, for whom we were so worried,” recalling his support during Trump’s past election campaign. At the same time, he offered a piece of “friendly advice,” cautioning that an ultimatum-style policy toward the Ukraine conflict is ineffective when dealing with a “nuclear power.” Lukashenko claimed he recently passed this message to Trump through mutual American contacts.

Political analyst Alexander Klaskovsky describes this behavior as Lukashenko attempting another “geopolitical split,” a strategy to maintain his relationship with the Kremlin while simultaneously creating openings with the West. Klaskovsky suggests that recent visits by U.S. envoys were not just about securing the release of political prisoners, but also about using Lukashenko as a potential backchannel to Putin. This echoes a 2019 meeting where former U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton alleged Lukashenko had privately expressed deep concerns over Moscow’s threat to Belarusian sovereignty.

Meanwhile, the Belarusian opposition is pursuing a parallel track with Washington. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has announced that her diplomatic advisor recently traveled to the U.S. to explore the possibility of a meeting with Trump. The opposition hopes that the former U.S. president could act as a mediator, facilitating a roundtable dialogue with the Belarusian authorities to find a way out of the country’s protracted political crisis.

Yet, the opposition’s strategy faces significant hurdles. Tsikhanouskaya’s strict preconditions for talks—demanding the prior release of all political prisoners and the complete exclusion of Lukashenko from any dialogue—have been branded as unrealistic even by some former allies. Valery Kovalevsky, who previously served in the opposition’s cabinet, publicly criticized the approach, warning that such an inflexible stance risks discrediting the very idea of a national dialogue for Belarus.