Caspian Powerhouse: Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan Chart New Era
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev embarked on a pivotal state visit to Astana on October 20th, with expectations set high for opening a new chapter in bilateral relations. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev personally greeted his counterpart at the airport, signaling the importance of the gathering. High-level discussions, including both one-on-one and expanded formats, are scheduled to delve into critical areas such as energy, transport, and digitalization. These sectors underscore Azerbaijan’s evolving role as a crucial global logistics hub, adept at connecting major world economies.
Over recent years, Azerbaijan has strategically positioned itself as a vital nexus at the intersection of global and regional interests. Through the deliberate development of key transport corridors like TRACECA and the “Belt and Road” initiative – which has notably evolved into the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, also known as the Middle Corridor – coupled with substantial energy projects for the South Caucasus and Central Asia, including the prospective transportation of renewable energy to Europe, Azerbaijan has solidified its standing as an indispensable partner.
Geopolitical shifts have profoundly amplified Baku’s influence, transforming its aspirational positioning into a concrete status as a pivotal nation. The strategic groundwork laid a decade ago for connectivity projects has now fully materialized. President Aliyev is increasingly recognized as the leader of a “key country,” opening gateways to the South Caucasus and Central Asia for external players, including Russia, a significant regional neighbor. Azerbaijan is central to numerous initiatives, notably the “North-South” international transport corridor.
Azerbaijan’s growing clout is further evidenced by President Aliyev’s active participation in global, not merely regional, summits. His presence among key figures at the European Political Community Summit in Denmark and the Middle East Peace Summit, spearheaded by former US President Donald Trump and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, highlights this trajectory. Intriguingly, there’s even discussion about Azerbaijan potentially contributing troops to peacekeeping operations in the Middle East. While details remain sparse, this contemplation alone signals a significant shift in Azerbaijan’s international image and its relationship with the United States, underscored by ongoing expert efforts to draft a strategic partnership agreement between Baku and Washington.
Beyond economic considerations, President Aliyev’s visit to Kazakhstan carries substantial political weight. For three decades, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have cultivated a relationship remarkably free of sharp contradictions. The tragic AZAL airline crash near Aktau in December 2024, which claimed dozens of lives, served as a poignant test of the trilateral cooperation between Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Russia. Rather than sparking a diplomatic crisis, the incident became a testament to responsible and effective engagement.
A joint investigation led by Kazakhstan, with the full involvement of all parties and international experts, alongside official apologies from Russia and clarifications from President Vladimir Putin, prevented any escalation. The transparent exchange of information and collaborative resolution of compensation and technical assessments significantly bolstered trust. This openness averted mutual suspicion, demonstrating that even complex situations can be navigated through dialogue. Baku deeply appreciated the cooperation from Moscow and Astana, ultimately transforming a tragic event into an opportunity to strengthen communication and emphasize the critical importance of close coordination for regional safety.
Ilgar Velizade, head of the “South Caucasus” club of political scientists, anticipates President Aliyev’s visit will mark a crucial phase in reinforcing the allied relationship between the two nations, building upon strategic and allied agreements signed in 2004 and 2005. Trade figures corroborate this positive trend: according to the Committee on Statistics of Kazakhstan, bilateral trade reached $470 million in 2024 and surged to $547 million between January and August 2025 – more than triple the figure for the same period last year. Despite this growth, the ambitious $1 billion target set by both countries remains unmet, primarily due to the limited structure of mutual trade. Kazakhstan predominantly exports raw materials such as metals, oil, and grain to Azerbaijan, while Azerbaijan supplies pipes, aluminum, and agricultural products.
A significant hurdle for a long time was logistics. The absence of a shared land border necessitates the continuous development of marine and railway infrastructure, alongside innovative digital trade corridors. Today, both nations are vigorously investing in port modernization, fleet expansion, and the launch of the Digital Trade Corridor, gradually dismantling these historical constraints.
According to Ilgar Velizade, a central focus of the negotiations will undoubtedly be the advancement of transport and logistics links. He noted the growing importance of the Middle Corridor, with ongoing efforts to harmonize tariffs and establish efficient infrastructure. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are poised to play an especially critical role as strategic anchors of this corridor, thanks to their advantageous geographical locations and sustained investments in infrastructure, effectively bridging the markets of Europe and Asia.
In 2022, a roadmap for the Middle Corridor’s development was signed in Aktau, outlining modernization efforts, barrier removal, and simplification of customs procedures. Both parties agreed in 2024 to update this roadmap, accelerate project implementation, and boost the route’s throughput capacity to 10 million tons. These measures collectively aim to forge a resilient and competitive transport corridor, with Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, leveraging their developed port facilities and logistics centers, acting as key drivers of this ambitious process.
Experts also anticipate that discussions will touch upon increasing oil transportation volumes via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. Although Azerbaijan’s current transshipment capabilities are not vast, it is capable of channeling a portion of Kazakh oil to the global market. KazMunayGas reports that Kazakhstan intends to transport 1.2 million tons of oil through this route in 2025, with Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Energy indicating that both sides are exploring the possibility of escalating this figure to 7 million tons by 2027.
Furthermore, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are jointly pursuing two substantial infrastructure projects. The first is a submarine fiber-optic cable (ВОЛС) between Aktau and Sumgayit, spanning approximately 380 km across the Caspian seabed. With a projected capacity exceeding 400 Tbit/s, this cable will provide Kazakhstan with alternative high-speed internet access and facilitate Europe-China traffic transit. Preparatory work is complete, with construction slated to commence in 2026. The second project involves a deep-water electric cable connecting the energy systems of Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan, set to form a “green corridor” for exporting renewable energy to Europe, with commissioning expected in the second quarter of 2026.
One significant challenge that could impede these ambitious plans is the ongoing shallowing of the Caspian Sea. President Aliyev, in an interview with “Kazinform” ahead of his visit, stressed the critical importance for all Caspian littoral states to foster close cooperation, actively share scientific data, and devise concerted measures to mitigate the consequences. He concluded that “Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and other Caspian countries can and must actively promote initiatives for the protection of the Caspian Sea on regional and international platforms. In the face of escalating transnational environmental risks, the Caspian is no longer just a body of water but transforms into a symbol of our shared responsibility and the necessity for united action.”
The visit of the Azerbaijani leader to Kazakhstan is anticipated to culminate in the signing of several agreements, including those on port infrastructure development, the establishment of a joint industrial hub in West Kazakhstan, mutual recognition of educational documents, and expanded cultural exchange. A notable initiative could also be the creation of a joint investment fund designed to finance projects across logistics, energy, mechanical engineering, and IT sectors.