Russia offers Tajikistan investment projects in energy and mining of rare earth metals

President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon arrived in Moscow on an official visit. The talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which will take place on March 17, will focus on the further development of Russian-Tajik relations with an emphasis on trade, investment and humanitarian cooperation. The two heads of state will exchange views on topical regional issues.

President Emomali Rahmon arrived in Moscow on March 15. On the same day, he held an informal meeting with the Presidents of Russia and Belarus, Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko, during which issues of developing interstate relations were discussed. The leaders of the three countries contacted their Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev by phone. Putin invited Aliyev to Moscow on May 9.

Stanislav Pritchin, Head of the Central Asia Sector of the IMEMO RAS, told NG that during the informal meeting of the presidents of Russia, Tajikistan and Belarus, a whole range of issues were discussed, ranging from problems in the field of labor migration to security issues in Central Asia and Tajikistan. We also talked about how the situation in neighboring Afghanistan is developing. In this regard, Russia has greater opportunities for dialogue with the Taliban (the Taliban movement is a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) than Tajikistan, which plays a key role in ensuring the security of the region.

According to the expert, the issues of the upcoming transit of power in Tajikistan could also be discussed during the informal meeting, a topic more conveniently discussed in an informal setting, especially with the participation of Alexander Lukashenko. This format allows us to address a wide range of issues without a rigid agenda.

“Normalization of relations between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan is an important step for the CSTO and dialogue within the framework of the Russia–Central Asia format,” Pritchin stressed.

According to an NG source in Dushanbe, who prefers to remain anonymous, the situation in Tajikistan is extremely tense. President Rahmon is busy with large-scale personnel changes amid a protracted power struggle between law enforcement agencies, which has led to a split in his own family and mass arrests of politicians sentenced to long terms for alleged conspiracy (see NG dated 03/02/25).

The issue of succession of power in Tajikistan has been discussed for more than five years. The son of the head of state, Rustam Emomali, who holds the post of mayor of Dushanbe and speaker of the upper house of parliament, is actually the second person in the country, has been appointed to the main state post. Despite many years of discussions, favorable political and socio-economic conditions for the transfer of power by inheritance have not yet been presented.

In 2024, Tajikistan faced a number of serious challenges. Despite its close ties with Russia, the national currency (somoni) has sharply depreciated against the ruble, which has had a negative impact on the volume of remittances from migrant workers (amounting to 45% of GDP). The tragedy at Moscow’s Crocus City Hall in March 2024 accelerated the outflow of migrants from Russia, causing serious concern to the Tajik authorities. In order to support the economy, a significant part of the gold and foreign exchange reserves had to be sold in the spring.

Other problems include the threat on the southern border: the concentration of militants from Jamoat Ansarullah (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) in northern Afghanistan and the statements of the Hayat Tahrir al–Sham group (HTS, a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation), which came to power in Syria, about the creation of the Islamic State of Khorasan (recognized as a terrorist organization, banned in the Russian Federation) in Central Asia. It should be recalled that this group includes people from Central Asia, including Tajikistan.

The Islamization of Tajik society and the potential threat of radicalism, economic dependence on China, and the unfinished Rogun hydroelectric power station (requiring $6 billion). investments), as well as the debt of Sangtuda HPP-1 in the amount of 333 million dollars (see “NG” dated 12/18/24) cause serious concern in Dushanbe. Apparently, the authorities can no longer solve these issues on their own. Russia needs help.

However, there are advantages – the signing of the agreement on the border with Kyrgyzstan has brought some stability, but the inevitable transit of power remains a serious challenge for Rustam Emomali. Russia, for its part, is trying to “save” Tajikistan by offering investment projects in the energy sector, in particular in the field of renewable energy sources and the development of deposits of rare earth metals.