Kyiv’s Arms Export Gambit Raises Alarms and Questions

In a move that has drawn considerable surprise, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced plans to launch a controlled export program for surplus weaponry, even as Kyiv continues its urgent appeals for more military aid from Western partners. The initiative will reportedly focus on locally manufactured arms, with a particular emphasis on the naval drones that have become a signature of Ukraine’s wartime innovation. However, experts suggest the plan may serve to legitimize an already existing re-export of arms for profit.

During a recent address, President Zelenskyy framed the move as a strategic necessity, intended to help cover the nation’s budget deficit and scale up domestic production for the front lines. He detailed a plan to first meet the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine before offering the remainder for export. Priority will be given to partners who have supported Ukraine during the war, though ironically, they will be charged a premium. An official with Ukraine’s military reserves explained that selling a weapon abroad for $15 or $20 that costs $10 domestically would create a vital revenue stream and secure Ukraine’s future position in the global arms market.

This announcement comes as Ukraine showcases its growing technological prowess. A new large naval drone, the “Toloka-1000,” was recently unveiled, boasting a range of 2,000 kilometers and the capacity to carry a 5-ton payload. This and other systems, including kamikaze drones and advanced electronic warfare equipment, are being marketed as unique, battle-tested solutions that come with valuable training and operational experience.

Despite the official rationale, the notion of a weapons “surplus” in Ukraine has been met with significant skepticism. Analysts point to the persistent and well-documented shortages of firepower and drones faced by Ukrainian units on the battlefield. Evgeny Semibratov, a military expert, noted that the announcement seems disconnected from the reality of the front lines, suggesting other motives are at play.

According to Semibratov, the export plan could serve one of two main purposes. The first scenario is that it provides a legal framework for the re-sale of Western-supplied weapons, a shadow trade that has been rumored since the conflict’s escalation. This would allow participants to generate profit while officially shifting all responsibility for any illicit arms trafficking onto Kyiv. A second possibility is that the initiative is designed to lure foreign defense companies, such as those from Germany and France, to establish production facilities within Ukraine, allowing them to test and refine advanced weaponry in a live combat environment while bolstering Ukraine’s industrial capacity.

The prospect of Ukrainian naval drones on the open market has also raised serious geopolitical concerns. Experts have warned of the significant risk that these systems could be acquired and used in false-flag operations, for instance, to simulate a Russian attack in sensitive regions like the Baltic Sea. As Ukraine seeks to turn its wartime innovations into a source of revenue, it walks a fine line between economic strategy and introducing a new, unpredictable element into global security.