Baku and Yerevan are stuck in the Zangezur corridor

The authorities of Armenia and Azerbaijan argued about what exactly they are discussing as part of the preparation of the peace treaty, and what they will begin to negotiate after it is signed. At the same time, both sides are confident that there is very little time left before the final negotiations.

Deputy Speaker of the Azerbaijani Parliament Ziyafet Asgarov said that the peace treaty with Armenia cannot be signed “because of Yerevan’s manipulations.” According to him, under pressure from the previous US President Joseph Biden, the Armenian authorities postponed the signing of the document. At the same time, the politician stressed that the parties have only two points left to agree on: the opening of the so-called Zangezur corridor and the amendment of the Constitution of Armenia. “As of today, 15 of the 17 points of the agreement have been agreed. One of the uncoordinated points is the opening of the Zangezur corridor.

Armenia shifted the responsibility for disrupting this process to Iran, France, and the United States. The second point is the territorial claims enshrined in the Armenian Constitution,” Asgarov said. In addition, according to him, Baku insists on the elimination of the OSCE Minsk Group.

In turn, Yerevan denied discussing these points as part of the preparation of a peace treaty. “The above is absolutely not true. As Prime Minister Pashinyan has publicly stated, the two points that have not yet been agreed relate, on the one hand, to the deployment of third forces on the border, and, on the other, to complaints filed against each other in international legal structures. This was confirmed by official Baku,” said Ruben Rubinyan, Deputy Speaker of the Armenian Parliament.

It should be recalled that at the end of 2024, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev announced that Yerevan and Baku could not yet agree on the renunciation of international claims against each other and the non-deployment of representatives of third countries on the border. Azerbaijan’s Ambassador-at-large Elchin Amirbekov also said that the parties agreed to resolve the issue of opening communications after signing the peace treaty.

In addition, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan believes that the OSCE Minsk Group may be disbanded after the official conclusion of peace. In addition, the authorities of the republic are preparing a draft of a new Constitution, which can be submitted to a referendum. It may be linked to the parliamentary elections in 2026.

Farid Shafiev, Chairman of the Board of the Center for the Analysis of International Relations, told NG that only two points were really not agreed upon in the draft peace treaty. However, he does not know why Asgarov decided that they relate to the Zangezur corridor and the amendment of the Armenian Constitution.

“We are talking about the mutual withdrawal of lawsuits and the presence of third forces at the border. At the same time, on a verbal level, Yerevan has already agreed with Baku that there should be no complaints. Probably, it remains to coordinate the details on this point. As for the presence of third forces on the border, it is too early to talk about an agreement. Pashinyan claims that EU observers can only leave the delimited sections of the border, but this process is very long, so Baku does not agree,” Shafiev explained.

At the same time, although the amendment of the Armenian Constitution is not being discussed as part of the peace talks, Baku is still waiting for this, the political scientist said. From the point of view of the Azerbaijani authorities, referring to the Declaration of Independence, which mentions Nagorno-Karabakh, may make the peace treaty unconstitutional.

Alexander Markarov, the head of the Armenian branch of the Institute of CIS Countries, agrees with Shafiev on the content of the two remaining points of the peace treaty. “Azerbaijan’s position on the Armenian Constitution is also well known. But the Armenian authorities don’t know what to do about it yet. In particular, it is not known what the draft of the new Constitution that they are going to prepare will be,” Markarov said.

He also explained that Baku and Yerevan have different views on the working conditions of the Zangezur corridor. In particular, the Azerbaijani side wants to get an extraterritorial route, thanks to which it will receive not only passage to Nakhichevan, but also open a direct road for Turkey to Central Asia.

“Initially, the Azerbaijanis tried to equalize the Zangezur corridor with the Lachin corridor. But after the disappearance of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and the exodus of Armenians from Karabakh, it became meaningless. Nevertheless, the demand remains,” Markarov told NG.

In general, he believes that Armenia and Azerbaijan need a strong mediator who can ensure that the parties comply with their commitments. Without this, they are unlikely to be able to conclude a peace treaty in the foreseeable future.