The North–South corridor will connect the Caspian Sea with the Persian Gulf

Representatives of the “Caspian Five” countries (Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Iran, Turkmenistan), as well as the Prime Minister of Tajikistan, as an honorary guest, discussed at the III Caspian Economic Forum in Tehran the prospects for the development of key transport arteries in the region, including the Trans–Caspian International Transport Corridor (TMTC), the North-South corridor and The Caspian Sea–Persian Gulf route. The security of the Caspian Sea became an important topic on the agenda. Following the event, the parties signed a joint communique containing key areas for further work within the framework of the five-party cooperation.

The Third Caspian Economic Forum, held in Tehran, has become a platform for strengthening economic, trade and environmental cooperation between the Caspian littoral states. The development of the East–West and North–South transport corridors took a central place in the discussions. Azerbaijani Prime Minister Ali Asadov announced additional investments by Baku in expanding the capacity of these corridors due to the increase in cargo traffic.

The head of the Russian delegation, Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk, noted Moscow’s intention to increase the transit capacity of the North–South Transport hub and stressed the importance of mutual investments and technological cooperation. According to forecasts of the Eurasian Development Bank, cargo transportation along this corridor may reach $25-32 million by 2030. Overchuk called North–South a vivid example of successful collaboration.

Russian Transport Minister Roman Starovoit reported on the work of the Caspian Five on the completion of the North–South corridor. The Rasht-Astara section, connecting the Caspian Sea with the Persian Gulf, will become the final link, opening up new opportunities for trade and economic cooperation. Starovoit also announced the conclusion of an agreement between Russia and Iran, allowing for the start of exploration work in the near future, and the signing of an executive contract is expected before the beginning of March 2025. Recall that Iran has been hindering the allocation of land for the construction of the railway.

Iranian Minister of Industry, Mines and Trade Mohammad Atabaki confirmed Tehran’s readiness to develop the infrastructure of the Caspian Sea–Persian Gulf corridor, providing resources for the creation of logistics centers and the efficient use of its southern ports, which will provide access to world sea routes for the Caspian littoral countries.

Prime Minister of Tajikistan Kohir Rasulzoda, who participated in the forum as an honorary guest, noted the importance of developing the TMTC (or, as it is also called, the Middle Corridor) connecting Central Asia with Europe. Tajikistan has expressed its readiness to export green electricity to the countries of the Caspian basin, given that 98% of the energy produced in the republic is produced from renewable sources.

“MTK North–South is, of course, a key Caspian project that unites the interests of not only the five Caspian countries proper, but also a much wider area. You can pay attention to the presence of representatives of Tajikistan among the participants of the forum. Against this background, the absence of the delegation of Uzbekistan, which has recently shown increased interest in the Caspian transport issue, looks strange,” Alexander Knyazev, Doctor of Historical Sciences, leading researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, told NG.

According to the expert, it cannot be ruled out that the latter was influenced by a high level of geopolitical uncertainty, under which the project itself and participation in the Caspian Forum in Tehran could have caused few positive emotions in Washington and especially in Brussels. “However, in the Iranian capital, they also talked about latitudinal trans–Caspian transport projects, which are being lobbied by Western countries, including Turkey, and which, unlike the North-South ITC, are favourably treated in Beijing. In fact, from the point of view of China’s interests, latitudinal projects are just part of the well–known Belt and Road, although in the foreseeable future they are important not so much in terms of global transport chains as in terms of intraregional trade as the establishment of interconnection between the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus,” Knyazev stressed.

The expert believes that despite the global importance and significance of the North–South CTC for at least two Caspian countries, Russia and Iran, its effectiveness still contains more questions than answers. “This is the inability of the Iranian side to ensure the construction of the missing railway section on the western branch of the ITC from the border with Azerbaijan, a lot of difficulties on the offshore branch, as well as absolutely insufficient capacity of Iran’s railway network, starting from border crossings on the border with Turkmenistan and ending with approaches to the terminals of ports in the Persian Gulf. However, it should also be noted that an important quality of the MTK North–South project is its ability to include the capabilities of latitudinal transport corridors, bringing together the interests of a wide range of participants,” believes Knyazev.

The Forum was designed to deal more with issues related to the economy. But the economy does not exist in isolation from the state of the security sector. And there are still a lot of problems. Article 3 of the Caspian Convention declares “the non-presence of armed forces in the Caspian Sea that do not belong to the parties.” As Knyazev noted, “the absence of a coordinated and approved by all five countries specification of the “non-presence” of “foreign” armed forces, the absence of fixed specific criteria for “presence” opens a window of opportunity for interested non-Caspian actors.” “Azerbaijan, with its close military relations in the military sphere with Turkey and Israel, and Kazakhstan, which is actively developing military cooperation with Turkey, the United States, Great Britain and NATO as a whole, remain the most vulnerable in non–compliance with the regime of non-military presence of non-Caspian countries,” the expert noted.

“At the same time, there are precedents of Ukrainian attacks on civilian targets directly in the Caspian region and the adjacent North Caucasus, as well as on energy infrastructure related to the interests of the Caspian countries (how can we not recall the recent attack on the Kropotkinskaya oil refinery of the CPC (Caspian Pipeline Consortium. – NG), which has significantly reduced Kazakhstan’s oil exports for a long time, requires at least updating collective ideas about the state of security in the Caspian region,” Knyazev believes.

The issues of shallowing the Caspian Sea became the subject of discussions among the forum participants. “Azerbaijan is seriously concerned about the ecology of the Caspian Sea and proposes to apply a unified approach to solving such problems,” Prime Minister Ali Asadov said at the forum.