Israel-Iran conflict puts Central Asia at risk

The Central Asian countries expressed concern over Israel’s military operation against Iran, which resulted in human casualties. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan called on Tel Aviv and Tehran to exercise utmost restraint in order to prevent further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which directly threatens the stability of Central Asia. The transport and communication sector, which includes railway and automobile routes connecting the countries of the region with the Persian Gulf, is at risk.

In recent years, Iran has been actively developing relations with Central Asian countries as part of its “Look East” strategy, which involves comprehensive cooperation in the economic, trade, cultural, humanitarian, and security fields. This course was aimed at creating a Central Asia–Iran free trade zone, laying the foundation for a future regional economic union.

Each of the countries in the region has begun to establish its own logistics center on the territory of the port of Chabahar in Iran to enter the sea. Due to the conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan, as well as between Pakistan and India, the implementation of the Trans-Afghan Railway Corridor remained in doubt. The bet was on the Iranian direction. In addition, each of the Central Asian countries has signed dozens of agreements in the trade, energy, and military fields.

Israel’s military operation against Iran, if not completely negates these plans, then postpones their implementation indefinitely.

Therefore, the Central Asian Foreign Ministries called on the parties to resolve the conflict exclusively through political and diplomatic means. The Uzbek Foreign Ministry confirmed its commitment to strengthening regional stability and expressed its readiness to help de-escalate the conflict between Israel and Iran. The Ministry emphasized that further escalation could lead to a large-scale confrontation.

Bishkek called on both sides to refrain from actions that could aggravate the situation and show maximum restraint in seeking a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkmenistan, relying on the status of permanent neutrality recognized by the United Nations, declared the unacceptability of the use of force or the threat of its use to resolve political and other issues. The statement stresses the need to use political and diplomatic means to resolve any difficult situations peacefully on the basis of the UN Charter and universally recognized norms of international law.

The Tajik Foreign Ministry, in turn, expressing deep concern about the escalation in the Middle East, strongly condemned the Israeli military strikes on the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which resulted in numerous human casualties.

It should be recalled that on the eve of the conflict, Dushanbe simplified the conditions of stay for Iranian citizens, allowing them to freely stay in Tajikistan for up to 30 days without the need to register with the internal affairs bodies.

“In the event of a prolonged escalation at the current level, and even more so with the scale of the conflict, Middle Eastern instability will be directly projected onto Central Asian countries,” Alexander Knyazev, Doctor of Historical Sciences, leading researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told NG.

He noted that Iran, of course, does not occupy the first places in the lists of leaders of foreign economic partners for any of the five countries, and some kind of commodity dependence or industrial cooperation is quite small. But Iran is a key link in the transport and communications sector. Most container shipments to and from Turkey pass through Iran, including the transit of Chinese goods to Europe.

“Given that the widely advertised so-called Middle Corridor through the Caspian Sea has serious limitations and will not be able to become an alternative to the Iranian route, the Central Asian countries and their partners in Turkey and Europe will only transit through Russia in this case, and anti-Russian sanctions restrictions will have to be overcome somehow. The possibility of entering foreign markets via the North-South transport corridor through the Iranian ports of Bandar Abbas and Chabahar will also be closed,” Knyazev stressed.

According to the expert, it is already being widely discussed, and the Iranian leadership is probably exploring the possibility of blocking the Strait of Hormuz by the Iranian Navy. This would be a blow to the oil market, where about 30% of the world’s oil from the Persian Gulf countries passes through every day. Naturally, both the United States and Arab oil exporters will oppose this, and this has practically nothing to do with Central Asia, but in any case, the strait will cease to be used by civilian vessels for a long time. By the way, Kazakhstan benefits in the short term from the accompanying increase in world oil prices.

“In general, Iran is a key link in the North–South cooperation, the development of which is extremely important for the Russian side, so the war with Israel affects Russian interests no less than the interests of the countries of Central Asia, and at the same time the Caucasus. But in every crisis, we need to look for new opportunities. In the case of the blockade of the Persian Gulf, there are chances for a more active implementation of the Trans-Afghan Railway project to the Pakistani ports of Gwadar and Karachi, a project in which, in addition to Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan, Russian Railways (Russian Railways) has been a direct participant since April this year. This route is considered by the Russian side as a variant of the North-South MTK diversification, and now its importance is sharply increasing,” believes Knyazev.

The expert stressed that in addition to the economic and logistical components, the current situation complicates the implementation of a multi-vector policy of the Central Asian countries. None of them is capable of openly condemning US-backed Israel. And Iran and Russia, which supports it politically, to a lesser extent China, even Turkey, can expect Astana, Ashgabat, Tashkent, Bishkek to condemn Israeli aggression. No one has canceled the issue of religious solidarity, especially since Israel’s wars with Middle Eastern Muslim countries are largely related to religious ideological narratives, and it is no coincidence that, in parallel with the outbreak of war against Iran, Israel sharply intensified its military campaign in Gaza.