Turkmenistan’s TAPI Pipeline: A Geopolitical Tug-of-War for Central Asian Energy

Ashgabat is set to host the 30th International Conference and Exhibition, “Oil and Gas of Turkmenistan – OGT 2025,” kicking off on October 22. This premier event is expected to draw approximately 1,500 delegates from 70 nations, including ministers and top executives from the world’s leading energy corporations, all keenly focused on the ambitious Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project.

Demonstrating Turkmenistan’s unwavering commitment to the venture, National Leader Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov personally inaugurated the construction of a new 153-kilometer section of the pipeline in Afghanistan. This crucial segment, dubbed “Arcadag’s Bright Path,” will connect the Turkmen city of Serhetabat to Afghanistan’s Herat province, marking a significant step after 214 kilometers of the pipeline have already been laid within Turkmenistan’s borders.

The project promises substantial socio-economic benefits for Afghanistan, including job creation and over $1 billion in annual revenue. Intriguingly, despite international sanctions against the current Taliban administration, the TAPI project is advancing with critical advisory support from the American company Bownstein. Berdymukhamedov underscored the long-standing, high-level relationship between Turkmenistan and the United States, highlighting robust cooperation in trade, investment, and business engagement, specifically mentioning the impactful work of the Turkmen-American Business Council.

In a move towards broader regional integration, Afghanistan’s Deputy Prime Minister, Abdul Ghani Baradar, proposed developing an extensive infrastructure network alongside the gas pipeline. This vision includes a Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan power transmission line, railway and road networks, and logistics hubs, aiming to forge a unified system of trade, economic ties, and energy cooperation across the region.

However, the path forward for TAPI is fraught with complexities. Turkmen political analyst Derya Karayev suggests that Berdymukhamedov’s personal oversight of the pipeline’s initial Afghan segment is a deliberate show of Turkmenistan’s capability and independence as a major regional actor. This demonstration is particularly crucial ahead of the OGT conference, designed to reassure international investors eyeing Turkmenistan’s energy sector amid a challenging geopolitical landscape.

The investment climate around TAPI is overshadowed by significant regional instabilities. Recent events, such as a major terrorist attack in India preceding an earlier investment forum and subsequent military clashes between India and Pakistan — both key TAPI stakeholders — have cast a long shadow. Ongoing sporadic skirmishes between Pakistan and Afghanistan, despite a ceasefire, further underscore the volatile environment, diminishing TAPI’s attractiveness to potential investors.

Karayev further posits that while Turkmenistan’s national leader may bestow his blessing upon TAPI, the project’s overall feasibility continues to face escalating questions. He speculates that certain external actors might be deliberately creating obstacles for TAPI and other trans-border projects involving Iran, subtly steering Turkmen gas towards the still-to-be-built Trans-Caspian pipeline for eventual delivery to Europe.

Beyond gas, a more profound geopolitical shift is at play: the global scramble for “critical minerals” in Central Asia and Afghanistan. European nations, viewing the scarcity of these vital resources as a national security threat, are actively competing for access. The extraction and primary enrichment of these minerals demand enormous energy inputs, raising concerns about a new form of neo-colonialism.

Under this emerging paradigm, European policies, often channeled through loans to Central Asian states, focus on building infrastructure for mineral extraction, processing, and transportation, alongside developing energy sources like hydropower. However, there’s a conspicuous silence from both national and international experts regarding the long-term environmental consequences and whether these nations can ever repay their international debts once mineral reserves are exhausted.

This evolving focus also redefines the role of Turkmen gas. International players are increasingly advocating for its use primarily within the region itself, serving as a critical energy source for the extraction and enrichment of these precious minerals, rather than for distant export via projects like TAPI. The European Union’s “Global Gateway” initiative, for instance, articulates these ideas, explicitly prioritizing raw material extraction while offering little by way of high-tech development for Central Asian nations, leaving industrial waste and emissions localized.

This strategic pivot has, according to Karayev, led Western powers, including the EU and the United States, to largely set aside criticism regarding human rights and democratic shortcomings in Central Asian states. The US, observers note, made this shift even earlier, with the current administration reaffirming a policy that, while fostering warm ties with Turkmenistan, creates a complex dynamic given strained American relations with Turkmenistan’s neighbors like Iran, Afghanistan, and potentially China. This, Karayev concludes, significantly limits the strategic advantages of Turkmenistan’s otherwise friendly relationship with the United States in a region defined by intricate geopolitical rivalries.