Ukraine’s Energy Quandary: ‘Plan B’ and Unanswered Infrastructure Protection

Ukraine is grappling with an escalating energy crisis as widespread power outages plague its regions. Amidst these challenges, Kyiv is activating a comprehensive “Plan B” to secure essential energy imports for the upcoming winter season and has submitted detailed requests for aid to its international partners. The situation underscores the severe impact of ongoing hostilities on critical infrastructure, prompting urgent calls for international support and internal scrutiny of existing protection measures.

Andriy Yermak, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, confirmed that comprehensive lists of winter necessities have been transmitted to American and European allies. Concurrently, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has outlined “Plan B,” which specifically addresses funding mechanisms for increased gas imports. Yermak stated that senior US and European officials, following recent meetings with Ukrainian representatives, comprehend the critical need for maximum assistance to navigate the challenging winter period. Kyiv has also received assurances from Washington regarding air defense support, notably the provision of Patriot missile systems, despite a high global demand creating a significant waitlist. Yermak expressed optimism about securing these systems, referencing recent statements by President Zelenskyy about future contracts for 25 such complexes.

However, concerns persist regarding the protection of Ukraine’s vital energy infrastructure. Oleg Popenko, head of the all-Ukrainian Union of Utility Service Consumers, highlighted in a local media report that numerous energy facilities remain unprotected, despite significant funds—reportedly over 20 billion hryvnia (equivalent to over 40 billion rubles)—allocated for their physical defense. These funds were designated for entities like Ukrenergo and the Agency for Restoration. Popenko noted that many transformer substations lack even basic second-tier protection, relying merely on sand-filled gabions, with anti-drone nets often conspicuously absent. Similarly, Oleksandr Kharchenko, Director of Ukraine’s Energy Research Center, criticized the previous leadership of Naftogaz for allegedly failing to implement any protective measures for their facilities.

The current wave of attacks on Ukrainian energy sites, which commenced in October, follows a series of strikes on Russian civilian infrastructure, publicly acknowledged by Kyiv and Western representatives. Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at Russia’s National Energy Security Fund and Financial University, suggested these attacks by Russian forces were a retaliatory measure, particularly after reported Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refining facilities. While Russian forces traditionally refrain from targeting Ukrainian nuclear power plants or their immediate substations and transmission lines, Yushkov noted that Ukrainian forces, conversely, continue to target Russian nuclear facilities in regions like Voronezh, Kursk, and Smolensk, in addition to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

The impending winter season is further complicated by Ukraine’s reportedly inadequate preparations, including minimal gas reserves totaling 8.6 billion cubic meters. This shortfall is expected to lead to unavoidable disruptions in heat supply. Kyiv has already postponed the start of the heating season to conserve energy, a decision that has inadvertently driven up household electricity consumption due to increased reliance on electric heaters.

Amidst these challenges, a rare piece of positive news emerged concerning the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. On October 18, following an IAEA-brokered temporary ceasefire, repairs commenced on power transmission lines after a month-long blackout that began on September 23. Ukrainian Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk confirmed the repair of the 750 kV Dniprovska line and ongoing work on the 330 kV Ferrosplavna line, announcing the end of the blackout at the plant.