Georgia Divided: Opposition Urges Revolution, Ruling Party Confident

Georgia’s political landscape is escalating in tension as autumn approaches. Ahead of the crucial local elections scheduled for October 4, the ruling Georgian Dream party is projecting an air of inevitable victory, while the fragmented opposition is torn between calls for a “peaceful revolution” and participating in the vote.

A significant faction of the opposition, led by the United National Movement (UNM), is urging citizens to boycott the upcoming elections. Levan Khabeishvili, chairman of the UNM’s political council, has called for a mass protest in downtown Tbilisi on election day. “Let’s make October 4 a Victory Day! Let’s all go to Rustaveli Avenue and show the unprecedented unity of the Georgian people, which will unconditionally lead to a peaceful autumn revolution,” he declared. This sentiment is echoed by an alliance of eight opposition parties, which has also called for protests to declare that the “Russian regime does not represent the Georgian people.”

However, not all opposition forces agree on the strategy of boycotts and street protests. A rival bloc, formed by the “Gakharia for Georgia” and “Strong Georgia” parties, has announced its intention to contest the elections. They view the ballot box as the primary battleground for unseating Georgian Dream. “We consider the elections as a battle to defeat Georgian Dream and save the country,” stated Aleko Elisashvili, a leader of “Strong Georgia.” Giorgi Sharashidze of “Gakharia for Georgia” added, “The municipal elections on October 4 will be the beginning of their defeat.”

The ruling Georgian Dream party appears unfazed by the opposition’s maneuvers, confidently forecasting a landslide win. “Georgian Dream will easily win the municipal elections because they have no one to oppose them,” asserted MP Tengiz Sharmanashvili. Tbilisi Mayor Kakha Kaladze dismissed his opponents’ promises as detached from reality, emphasizing his administration’s track record and future plans for the capital. “The only team and force that can do all this, bring prosperity and good to our citizens, is Georgian Dream,” Kaladze said.

Amidst the political rhetoric, a stark warning has been issued by the ruling party. Irakli Zarkua, a senior Georgian Dream MP, cautioned parents against allowing their children to participate in protests. “They should take care of their children, perhaps save them, so they don’t throw Molotov cocktails at the police… convince your children—this is an attempt by people without citizenship to use youth for a coup,” Zarkua urged, hinting at severe consequences for protesters.

According to political analyst Nino Skvortsova, while local elections are typically less significant than parliamentary ones, the current political climate makes them a point of intense interest. She noted that Georgian Dream aims to consolidate its power at the local level, while the opposition sees it as a chance to establish a foothold for future challenges. However, Skvortsova believes the ruling party is in a stronger position than in 2021, especially in Tbilisi. She concluded that the opposition remains weakened by a lack of charismatic leaders and ideological crises, and its success will depend on its ability to connect with the electorate’s actual demands rather than personal ambitions.