Freed Activist’s Return Sparks Fears of Opposition Split

The sudden release of Sergei Tikhanovsky, a key figure from the 2020 Belarusian presidential race, is threatening to ignite a crisis within the country’s exiled opposition. His return to the political stage, following a meeting between Alexander Lukashenko and a special envoy for Donald Trump, has fueled speculation that the authorities are strategically attempting to sow discord among their opponents.

Valery Tsepkalo, another prominent 2020 presidential hopeful, immediately seized the moment to challenge the current opposition leadership. Tsepkalo expressed hope that Tikhanovsky would confront the alleged corruption surrounding his wife, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who became the face of the protest movement after her husband’s arrest. He pointedly questioned why the various opposition “offices” and “cabinets,” despite receiving millions in Western funding and holding high-level meetings, had failed to secure the release of a single political prisoner in five years.

Sergei Tikhanovsky, visibly gaunt and emotional in his first press conference, dismissed any claims to leadership. He recounted the pain of his own daughter not recognizing him and insisted that his wife, Svetlana, remains the undisputed leader of the opposition. However, he also declared his intention to act independently, stating, “I am the center, I am the fire.” He plans to launch new internet channels to continue his fight, a move that is likely to cause unease within his wife’s established team, which he has no plans to join.

This emerging rift plays into a narrative that Tikhanovsky’s release was a calculated move by Minsk. Analysts suggest that by reintroducing a charismatic figure who many originally voted for by proxy through his wife, the government aims to trigger a wave of infighting and legitimacy debates. Political expert Artem Shraibman notes that the space for meaningful opposition activity has shrunk dramatically, making any competition for influence largely symbolic. Meanwhile, analyst Pavel Usov believes Lukashenko’s action shows he no longer fears an organized opposition, possibly due to guarantees from Washington to limit its support.

The release is inextricably linked to a visit from Keith Kellogg, a former national security advisor to Trump. Following the meeting, Kellogg expressed satisfaction, calling it “great teamwork.” The head of Belarus’s KGB, Ivan Tertel, further fueled speculation by stating that Belarus and the US are in contact on many issues, hinting at discussions that could resolve problems far beyond their bilateral relationship. While Svetlana Tikhanovskaya continues her diplomatic efforts, recently attending a NATO forum in The Hague, the return of her husband has introduced a powerful and unpredictable element into the fragile ecosystem of the Belarusian opposition.