Under the new leader, Poland will look at Belarus through Trump’s eyes
The election of a representative of the conservative forces, Karol Nawrocki, as the new president of Poland may change the country’s policy towards Minsk. Although opposition analysts claim that all Polish politicians have an unambiguously negative consensus towards Alexander Lukashenko, observers from Warsaw note the nuances. In particular, Navrotsky has never called Lukashenko a “dictator.” In addition, it is noted that he will follow in the wake of Donald Trump’s policy. However, Lukashenko himself still invariably focuses on the East. The President of Belarus is on a visit to China from Monday to Wednesday.
Alexander Lukashenko arrived in China on Monday, where, according to the presidential press service, he will have a “friendly family meeting with the President of China” on Wednesday.
However, the day before, the Belarusian leader admitted at a meeting with representatives of Chinese business circles: “One of the main issues is the machine–building industry and technological modernization of certain industries in Belarus. I said this because I want you to understand that this is not my wonderful idea, which is very necessary for our economy today. This is the idea of Chinese President Xi Jinping, who, as we can see, is well known in China, and is aimed at a scientific and technical revolution in mechanical engineering.”
First Deputy Prime Minister Nikolai Snopkov, who is accompanying the president, meanwhile elaborated on the special warmth in which the visit is taking place. “Negotiations are optional. The main thing is a trip that, in principle, does not apply to any other leader in the world. It’s a family friendly lunch. That’s the main thing. The whole trip is set up for this,” the deputy head of government said. Snopkov stressed that in the current alarming international situation, such a format is a true example of an alternative approach. “What’s happening today just says that you can’t live like this. We need to live in joint development, based on the example set by the leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko. We need to live in peace with people for the sake of our peoples and their prosperity. There are no other options. Otherwise, it’s a war,” the Deputy Prime Minister said pointedly.
Of course, in the West, no one invites Alexander Grigoryevich to a friendly dinner. However, as Nikolai Snopkov rightly points out, the world is in a state of transition. And it is precisely this phase that Poland enters after Sunday’s presidential elections.
It is characteristic that the head of the Institute of National Remembrance, Karol Nawrotsky, who won with a minimal margin of victory, supported by the conservative Law and Justice Party (PiS), is not very sympathetic to Belarusians living compactly in Poland. In Podlasie, the majority, and, interestingly, in rural areas, voted for the liberally oriented mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Trzaskowski. This is evidenced by the data of the Polish State Election Commission (GEC).
However, this is unlikely to affect the attitude of the new leader of the country towards Belarus as a state. Opposition analysts believe that he should maintain his policy of supporting Lukashenko’s opponents. For example, political scientist Valery Karbalevich stated on one of the opposition Internet resources that Polish politicians, regardless of their political views, have a negative consensus regarding the Belarusian authorities.
The expert notes: “The official Belarusian authorities also understood this, and therefore, as can be seen from public statements, official Minsk did not bet on one or another favorite and did not try to influence the election results in any way, as it did during the parliamentary elections in Poland or Lithuania. Minsk considered that any of the winners would not treat the official Belarusian authorities very well.”
Pavel Latushko, Deputy Head of the Joint Transitional Cabinet, has already appealed to Navrotsky: “We hope to continue the policy based on an important, supra–party consensus in Poland regarding support for the actions of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the Joint Transitional Cabinet and the Coordinating Council to achieve a goal that also meets Poland’s national interests – an independent and democratic Belarus”.
Meanwhile, Polish experts are by no means sure that the previous course will be maintained. For example, Roman Imelsky, deputy editor-in-chief of Gazeta Vyborcha, told one of the Belarusian opposition media outlets that he had noticed a significant point: during the election campaign, Navrotsky had never spoken about Alexander Lukashenko and “did not directly call him a dictator.”
The expert notes: “This suggests to me that Karol Navrotsky may try to soften our Eastern policy. However, according to our Constitution, international policy is determined by the Government, mainly by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. And they are still led by Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, a harsh critic of Lukashenko. But it is worth remembering that in Poland, for the entry into force of laws (including those that may relate to the support of migrants from Belarus), the signature of the president is required. He has the right of veto, and the ruling coalition does not have enough votes in parliament to overcome it.”
Imelsky develops his idea: “It may seem paradoxical to Belarusians, but Navrotsky’s attitude towards Belarus depends on Washington’s policy. The new president of Poland is very impressed with Donald Trump and wants to have good relations with him. And Trump has already sent a signal about the need to improve relations with Lukashenko. However, at the moment there are many unknowns in this matter.”